TY - GEN
T1 - Forecasting of solar particle event doses using Bayesian inference
AU - Neal, John S.
AU - Townsend, Lawence W.
PY - 2003
Y1 - 2003
N2 - This work reports the use of Bayesian inference methods to make forecasts of dose-time profiles due to solar particle event proton fluxes using dose and dose rate values from early in the evolution of the event. Predicted profiles for absorbed dose in water are presented for the September 24,2001, November 4,2001. and November 22.2001 solar particle events. Dose-time profiles are modeled with nonlinear regression techniques that assume Weibull and Gompertz growth curves. Predictions are implemented by Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques. Results for the September 24. 2001 event under-predict actual asymptotic dose and suggest a refinement of the categorization methodology. Predictions for the November 2001 events provide good agreement with the actual dosetime profiles. This work provides encouraging results towards the development of a real-time, event-triggered, advanced warning system.
AB - This work reports the use of Bayesian inference methods to make forecasts of dose-time profiles due to solar particle event proton fluxes using dose and dose rate values from early in the evolution of the event. Predicted profiles for absorbed dose in water are presented for the September 24,2001, November 4,2001. and November 22.2001 solar particle events. Dose-time profiles are modeled with nonlinear regression techniques that assume Weibull and Gompertz growth curves. Predictions are implemented by Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques. Results for the September 24. 2001 event under-predict actual asymptotic dose and suggest a refinement of the categorization methodology. Predictions for the November 2001 events provide good agreement with the actual dosetime profiles. This work provides encouraging results towards the development of a real-time, event-triggered, advanced warning system.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=34047178046&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/AERO.2003.1234189
DO - 10.1109/AERO.2003.1234189
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:34047178046
SN - 078037651X
SN - 9780780376519
T3 - IEEE Aerospace Conference Proceedings
SP - 3451
EP - 3464
BT - 2003 IEEE Aerospace Conference, Proceedings
T2 - 2003 IEEE Aerospace Conference
Y2 - 8 March 2003 through 15 March 2003
ER -