Forecasting and modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA with a timed intervention model

Gary D. Hachtel; John D. Stack; Jordan A. Hachtel

doi:10.1038/s41598-022-07487-8

Forecasting and modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA with a timed intervention model

Gary D. Hachtel, John D. Stack, Jordan A. Hachtel

electron Microscopy and Microanalysis

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

8 Scopus citations

Abstract

We propose a novel Timed InterventionS, P, E, I, Q, R, D model for projecting the possible futures of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. The proposed model introduces a series of timed interventions that can account for the influence of real time changes in government policy and social norms. We consider three separate types of interventions: (i) Protective interventions: Where population moves from susceptible to protected corresponding to mask mandates, stay-at-home orders and/or social distancing. (ii) Release interventions: Where population moves from protected to susceptible corresponding to social distancing mandates and practices being lifted by policy or pandemic fatigue. (iii) Vaccination interventions: Where population moves from susceptible, protected, and exposed to recovered (meaning immune) corresponding to the mass immunization of the U.S. Population. By treating the pandemic with timed interventions, we are able to model the pandemic extremely effectively, as well as directly predicting the course of the pandemic under differing sets of intervention schedules. We show that without prompt effective protective/vaccination interventions the pandemic will be extended significantly and result in many millions of deaths in the U.S.

Original language	English
Article number	4339
Journal	Scientific Reports
Volume	12
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-07487-8
State	Published - Dec 2022

Funding

The authors are indebted to Professor Janet Brandsma of Yale University for several crucial consultations which helped maintain virological credibility in the development and exposition of the timed intervention model. Thanks also to Professors Frank Stephenson Barnes and David Bortz of the University of Colorado, Boulder, who advanced our awareness of work in Engineering and Mathematical Biology. J.A.H. is supported by the Center for Nanophase Materials Sciences, which is a DOE Office of Science User Facility. The authors are indebted to Professor Janet Brandsma of Yale University for several crucial consultations which helped maintain virological credibility in the development and exposition of the timed intervention model. Thanks also to Professors Frank Stephenson Barnes and David Bortz of the University of Colorado, Boulder, who advanced our awareness of work in Engineering and Mathematical Biology. J.A.H. is supported by the Center for Nanophase Materials Sciences, which is a DOE Office of Science User Facility.

Funders	Funder number
Center for Nanophase Materials Sciences
Yale University
Office of Science
University of Colorado Boulder

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10.1038/s41598-022-07487-8

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Forecasting and modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA with a timed intervention model

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