Exploring trends in the global small satellite ecosystem

Activity in the small satellite industry, especially since 2012, has grown as new organizations and nations have joined the evolving global market in both the private and public sector. Growth in the sector has been driven, in part, by growing capabilities and falling costs of smallsats, principally enabled by the miniaturization of technology for the small satellite platform, increased data processing capabilities, the ubiquitous presence of GPS enabling location and attitude determination, improvements in ground system costs and signal processing capabilities, and, finally, the deployment of relatively less expensive commercial off-the-shelf parts. This study characterizes the growing global small satellite ecosystem and the drivers that are currently influencing its evolution, through a scenario-based approach. After an initial survey of current activities in the sector, through the development of a database of more than 650 global actors, and interviews with 70 experts across the sector in both the United States and internationally, four provocative archetypical scenarios were developed, set 10-15 years from now: There are two or more large small satellite constellations in low Earth orbit (LEO); small satellites have achieved near-parity with larger satellites, at least in remote sensing. Because of overcrowding and debris concerns, it is unsafe for satellite operation in LEO orbits; and on-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing of spacecraft is a reality, decreasing the need for small satellites. An analysis of the four scenarios led to the identification of 62 drivers that could lead to each scenario. The drivers fell into four categories: (1) demand for LEO-based services, which drives availability of funding, technology development, development of low-cost approaches, and infrastructure; (2) access to space; (3) competing alternatives to space-based services; and (4) government policies. Although it is difficult to predict where the sector will be in 10-15 years, the sector will continue to be shaped by the interplay of governmental and commercial activities and changing policy regimes at the nation-state and international level. To examine where the smallsat sector is headed, it is important for policymakers to pay attention to drivers outlined in this and other studies.