Exploring the environmental drivers of vegetation seasonality changes in the northern extratropical latitudes: a quantitative analysis

Xiangxu Kong; Jiafu Mao; Haishan Chen; Yaoping Wang; Yulong Zhang; Xiaoying Shi; Mingzhou Jin

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acf728

Exploring the environmental drivers of vegetation seasonality changes in the northern extratropical latitudes: a quantitative analysis

Xiangxu Kong
, Jiafu Mao
, Haishan Chen
, Yaoping Wang
, Yulong Zhang
, Xiaoying Shi
, Mingzhou Jin

Earth Systems Modeling

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

Vegetation seasonality in the northern extratropical latitudes (NEL) has changed dramatically, but our understanding of how it responds to climate change (e.g. temperature, soil moisture, shortwave radiation) and human activities (e.g. elevated CO₂ concentration) remains insufficient. In this study, we used two remote-sensing-based leaf area index and factorial simulations from the TRENDY models to attribute the changes in the integrated vegetation seasonality index (S), which captures both the concentration and magnitude of vegetation growth throughout the year, to climate, CO₂, and land use and land cover change (LULCC). We found that from 2003 to 2020, the enhanced average S in the NEL (MODIS: 0.0022 yr⁻¹, p < 0.05; GLOBMAP: 0.0018 yr⁻¹, p < 0.05; TRENDY S3 [i.e. the scenario considering both time-varying climate, CO₂, and LULCC]: 0.0011 ± 7.5174 × 10⁻⁴ yr⁻¹, p < 0.05) was primarily determined by the elevated CO₂ concentration (5.3 × 10⁻⁴ ± 3.8 × 10⁻⁴ yr⁻¹, p < 0.05) and secondly controlled by the combined climate change (4.6 × 10⁻⁴ ± 6.6 × 10⁻⁴ yr⁻¹, p > 0.1). Geographically, negative trends in the vegetation growth concentration were dominated by climate change (31.4%), while both climate change (47.9%) and CO₂ (31.9%) contributed to the enhanced magnitude of vegetation growth. Furthermore, around 60% of the study areas showed that simulated major climatic drivers of S variability exhibited the same dominant factor as observed in either the MODIS or GLOBMAP data. Our research emphasizes the crucial connection between environmental factors and vegetation seasonality, providing valuable insights for policymakers and land managers in developing sustainable ecosystem management strategies amidst a changing climate.

Original language	English
Article number	094071
Journal	Environmental Research Letters
Volume	18
Issue number	9
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf728
State	Published - Sep 1 2023

Funding

H Chen was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42088101 and 42021004). J Mao, Y Wang and X Shi were supported by the Reducing Uncertainties in Biogeochemical Interactions through Synthesis and Computing Scientific Focus Area (RUBISCO SFA) project and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Scientific Focus Area (TES SFA) project funded through the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division of the Biological and Environmental Research Office in the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is supported by the Office of Science of the DOE under Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725. This manuscript has been authored by UT-Battelle LLC under Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the US Department of Energy (DOE). The US government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for US government purposes. DOE will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan ( http://energy.gov/downloads/doe-public-access-plan ). *

Keywords

environmental drivers
factorial simulations
vegetation seasonality

Access to Document

10.1088/1748-9326/acf728

Cite this

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title = "Exploring the environmental drivers of vegetation seasonality changes in the northern extratropical latitudes: a quantitative analysis",

abstract = "Vegetation seasonality in the northern extratropical latitudes (NEL) has changed dramatically, but our understanding of how it responds to climate change (e.g. temperature, soil moisture, shortwave radiation) and human activities (e.g. elevated CO2 concentration) remains insufficient. In this study, we used two remote-sensing-based leaf area index and factorial simulations from the TRENDY models to attribute the changes in the integrated vegetation seasonality index (S), which captures both the concentration and magnitude of vegetation growth throughout the year, to climate, CO2, and land use and land cover change (LULCC). We found that from 2003 to 2020, the enhanced average S in the NEL (MODIS: 0.0022 yr−1, p < 0.05; GLOBMAP: 0.0018 yr−1, p < 0.05; TRENDY S3 [i.e. the scenario considering both time-varying climate, CO2, and LULCC]: 0.0011 ± 7.5174 × 10−4 yr−1, p < 0.05) was primarily determined by the elevated CO2 concentration (5.3 × 10−4 ± 3.8 × 10−4 yr−1, p < 0.05) and secondly controlled by the combined climate change (4.6 × 10−4 ± 6.6 × 10−4 yr−1, p > 0.1). Geographically, negative trends in the vegetation growth concentration were dominated by climate change (31.4\%), while both climate change (47.9\%) and CO2 (31.9\%) contributed to the enhanced magnitude of vegetation growth. Furthermore, around 60\% of the study areas showed that simulated major climatic drivers of S variability exhibited the same dominant factor as observed in either the MODIS or GLOBMAP data. Our research emphasizes the crucial connection between environmental factors and vegetation seasonality, providing valuable insights for policymakers and land managers in developing sustainable ecosystem management strategies amidst a changing climate.",

keywords = "environmental drivers, factorial simulations, vegetation seasonality",

author = "Xiangxu Kong and Jiafu Mao and Haishan Chen and Yaoping Wang and Yulong Zhang and Xiaoying Shi and Mingzhou Jin",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.",

year = "2023",

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doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/acf728",

language = "English",

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T1 - Exploring the environmental drivers of vegetation seasonality changes in the northern extratropical latitudes

T2 - a quantitative analysis

AU - Kong, Xiangxu

AU - Mao, Jiafu

AU - Chen, Haishan

AU - Wang, Yaoping

AU - Zhang, Yulong

AU - Shi, Xiaoying

AU - Jin, Mingzhou

PY - 2023/9/1

Y1 - 2023/9/1

N2 - Vegetation seasonality in the northern extratropical latitudes (NEL) has changed dramatically, but our understanding of how it responds to climate change (e.g. temperature, soil moisture, shortwave radiation) and human activities (e.g. elevated CO2 concentration) remains insufficient. In this study, we used two remote-sensing-based leaf area index and factorial simulations from the TRENDY models to attribute the changes in the integrated vegetation seasonality index (S), which captures both the concentration and magnitude of vegetation growth throughout the year, to climate, CO2, and land use and land cover change (LULCC). We found that from 2003 to 2020, the enhanced average S in the NEL (MODIS: 0.0022 yr−1, p < 0.05; GLOBMAP: 0.0018 yr−1, p < 0.05; TRENDY S3 [i.e. the scenario considering both time-varying climate, CO2, and LULCC]: 0.0011 ± 7.5174 × 10−4 yr−1, p < 0.05) was primarily determined by the elevated CO2 concentration (5.3 × 10−4 ± 3.8 × 10−4 yr−1, p < 0.05) and secondly controlled by the combined climate change (4.6 × 10−4 ± 6.6 × 10−4 yr−1, p > 0.1). Geographically, negative trends in the vegetation growth concentration were dominated by climate change (31.4%), while both climate change (47.9%) and CO2 (31.9%) contributed to the enhanced magnitude of vegetation growth. Furthermore, around 60% of the study areas showed that simulated major climatic drivers of S variability exhibited the same dominant factor as observed in either the MODIS or GLOBMAP data. Our research emphasizes the crucial connection between environmental factors and vegetation seasonality, providing valuable insights for policymakers and land managers in developing sustainable ecosystem management strategies amidst a changing climate.

AB - Vegetation seasonality in the northern extratropical latitudes (NEL) has changed dramatically, but our understanding of how it responds to climate change (e.g. temperature, soil moisture, shortwave radiation) and human activities (e.g. elevated CO2 concentration) remains insufficient. In this study, we used two remote-sensing-based leaf area index and factorial simulations from the TRENDY models to attribute the changes in the integrated vegetation seasonality index (S), which captures both the concentration and magnitude of vegetation growth throughout the year, to climate, CO2, and land use and land cover change (LULCC). We found that from 2003 to 2020, the enhanced average S in the NEL (MODIS: 0.0022 yr−1, p < 0.05; GLOBMAP: 0.0018 yr−1, p < 0.05; TRENDY S3 [i.e. the scenario considering both time-varying climate, CO2, and LULCC]: 0.0011 ± 7.5174 × 10−4 yr−1, p < 0.05) was primarily determined by the elevated CO2 concentration (5.3 × 10−4 ± 3.8 × 10−4 yr−1, p < 0.05) and secondly controlled by the combined climate change (4.6 × 10−4 ± 6.6 × 10−4 yr−1, p > 0.1). Geographically, negative trends in the vegetation growth concentration were dominated by climate change (31.4%), while both climate change (47.9%) and CO2 (31.9%) contributed to the enhanced magnitude of vegetation growth. Furthermore, around 60% of the study areas showed that simulated major climatic drivers of S variability exhibited the same dominant factor as observed in either the MODIS or GLOBMAP data. Our research emphasizes the crucial connection between environmental factors and vegetation seasonality, providing valuable insights for policymakers and land managers in developing sustainable ecosystem management strategies amidst a changing climate.

KW - environmental drivers

KW - factorial simulations

KW - vegetation seasonality

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U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/acf728

DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/acf728

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85173128546

SN - 1748-9318

VL - 18

JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

IS - 9

M1 - 094071

ER -

Exploring the environmental drivers of vegetation seasonality changes in the northern extratropical latitudes: a quantitative analysis

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