Abstract
This paper evaluates the indirect energy-use emission implications of increases in the use of biofuels in the USA between 2001 and 2010 as mandates within a dynamic global computable general equilibrium model. The study incorporates explicit markets for biofuels, petroleum and other fossil fuels, and accounts for interactions among all sectors of an 18-region global economy. It considers bilateral trade, as well as the dynamics of capital allocation and investment. Simulation results show that the biofuel mandates in the USA generate an overall reduction in global energy use and emissions over the simulation period from 2001 to 2030. Consequently, the indirect energy-use emission change or emission leakage under the mandate is negative. That is, global emission reductions are larger than the direct emission savings from replacing petroleum with biofuels under the USA RFS2 over the last decade. Under our principal scenario this enhanced the direct emission reduction from biofuels by about 66%. The global change in lifecycle energy-use emissions for this scenario was estimated to be about -93. million tons of CO2e in 2010, -45. million tons of CO2e in 2020, and an increase of 5. million tons of CO2e in 2030, relative to the baseline scenario. Sensitivity results of six alternative scenarios provided additional insights into the pattern of the regional and global effects of biofuel mandates on energy-use emissions.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 85-96 |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Journal | Applied Energy |
| Volume | 99 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Nov 2012 |
Funding
This research was supported by the US Department of Energy (DoE) under the Office of the Biomass Program. We thank Young Sun Baek of the Energy & Transportation Science Division at Oak Ridge National Laboratory for her help in reviewing and providing comments on the initial version of this paper. We also gratefully acknowledge two anonymous reviewers whose comments were valuable in revising the paper. This manuscript has been authored by UT-Battelle, LLC, under Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the US DoE. The publisher, by accepting the paper for publication, acknowledges that the US government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for US government purposes. The views in this paper are those of the authors, who are also responsible for any errors or omissions.
Keywords
- Biofuels
- Emissions
- General equilibrium model
- Indirect energy use
- Mandates