ENERGY SECURITY of CHINA, INDIA, the E.U. And the U.S. And LONG-TERM SCENARIOS: RESULTS from SIX IAMs

Jessica Jewell; Aleh Cherp; Vadim Vinichenko; Nico Bauer; T. O.M. Kober; David McCollum; Detlef P. Van Vuuren; B. O.B. Van Der Zwaan

doi:10.1142/S2010007813400113

ENERGY SECURITY of CHINA, INDIA, the E.U. And the U.S. And LONG-TERM SCENARIOS: RESULTS from SIX IAMs

Jessica Jewell, Aleh Cherp, Vadim Vinichenko, Nico Bauer, T. O.M. Kober, David McCollum, Detlef P. Van Vuuren, B. O.B. Van Der Zwaan

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

32 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper assesses energy security in three long-term energy scenarios (business as usual development, a projection of Copenhagen commitments, and a 450 ppm stabilization scenario) as modeled in six integrated assessment models: GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, ReMIND, TIAM-ECN and WITCH. We systematically evaluate long-term vulnerabilities of vital energy systems of four major economies: China, the European Union (E.U.), India and the U.S., as expressed by several characteristics of energy trade, resource extraction, and diversity of energy options. Our results show that climate policies are likely to lead to significantly lower global energy trade and reduce energy imports of major economies, decrease the rate of resource depletion, and increase the diversity of energy options. China, India and the E.U. would derive particularly strong benefits from climate policies, whereas the U.S. may forego some opportunities to export fossil fuels in the second half of the century.

Original language	English
Article number	1340011
Journal	Climate Change Economics
Volume	4
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007813400113
State	Published - Nov 1 2013
Externally published	Yes

Funding

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement No. 282846 (LIMITS).

Funders	Funder number
European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007
Seventh Framework Programme	282846
Seventh Framework Programme

Keywords

Energy security
climate change
energy scenarios
major economies

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1142/S2010007813400113

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title = "ENERGY SECURITY of CHINA, INDIA, the E.U. And the U.S. And LONG-TERM SCENARIOS: RESULTS from SIX IAMs",

abstract = "This paper assesses energy security in three long-term energy scenarios (business as usual development, a projection of Copenhagen commitments, and a 450 ppm stabilization scenario) as modeled in six integrated assessment models: GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, ReMIND, TIAM-ECN and WITCH. We systematically evaluate long-term vulnerabilities of vital energy systems of four major economies: China, the European Union (E.U.), India and the U.S., as expressed by several characteristics of energy trade, resource extraction, and diversity of energy options. Our results show that climate policies are likely to lead to significantly lower global energy trade and reduce energy imports of major economies, decrease the rate of resource depletion, and increase the diversity of energy options. China, India and the E.U. would derive particularly strong benefits from climate policies, whereas the U.S. may forego some opportunities to export fossil fuels in the second half of the century.",

keywords = "Energy security, climate change, energy scenarios, major economies",

author = "Jessica Jewell and Aleh Cherp and Vadim Vinichenko and Nico Bauer and Kober, {T. O.M.} and David McCollum and {Van Vuuren}, {Detlef P.} and {Van Der Zwaan}, {B. O.B.}",

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year = "2013",

month = nov,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1142/S2010007813400113",

language = "English",

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T2 - RESULTS from SIX IAMs

AU - Jewell, Jessica

AU - Cherp, Aleh

AU - Vinichenko, Vadim

AU - Bauer, Nico

AU - Kober, T. O.M.

AU - McCollum, David

AU - Van Vuuren, Detlef P.

AU - Van Der Zwaan, B. O.B.

PY - 2013/11/1

Y1 - 2013/11/1

N2 - This paper assesses energy security in three long-term energy scenarios (business as usual development, a projection of Copenhagen commitments, and a 450 ppm stabilization scenario) as modeled in six integrated assessment models: GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, ReMIND, TIAM-ECN and WITCH. We systematically evaluate long-term vulnerabilities of vital energy systems of four major economies: China, the European Union (E.U.), India and the U.S., as expressed by several characteristics of energy trade, resource extraction, and diversity of energy options. Our results show that climate policies are likely to lead to significantly lower global energy trade and reduce energy imports of major economies, decrease the rate of resource depletion, and increase the diversity of energy options. China, India and the E.U. would derive particularly strong benefits from climate policies, whereas the U.S. may forego some opportunities to export fossil fuels in the second half of the century.

AB - This paper assesses energy security in three long-term energy scenarios (business as usual development, a projection of Copenhagen commitments, and a 450 ppm stabilization scenario) as modeled in six integrated assessment models: GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, ReMIND, TIAM-ECN and WITCH. We systematically evaluate long-term vulnerabilities of vital energy systems of four major economies: China, the European Union (E.U.), India and the U.S., as expressed by several characteristics of energy trade, resource extraction, and diversity of energy options. Our results show that climate policies are likely to lead to significantly lower global energy trade and reduce energy imports of major economies, decrease the rate of resource depletion, and increase the diversity of energy options. China, India and the E.U. would derive particularly strong benefits from climate policies, whereas the U.S. may forego some opportunities to export fossil fuels in the second half of the century.

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KW - energy scenarios

KW - major economies

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ENERGY SECURITY of CHINA, INDIA, the E.U. And the U.S. And LONG-TERM SCENARIOS: RESULTS from SIX IAMs

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

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