Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals

David L. McCollum; Wenji Zhou; Christoph Bertram; Harmen Sytze De Boer; Valentina Bosetti; Sebastian Busch; Jacques Després; Laurent Drouet; Johannes Emmerling; Marianne Fay; Oliver Fricko; Shinichiro Fujimori; Matthew Gidden; Mathijs Harmsen; Daniel Huppmann; Gokul Iyer; Volker Krey; Elmar Kriegler; Claire Nicolas; Shonali Pachauri; Simon Parkinson; Miguel Poblete-Cazenave; Peter Rafaj; Narasimha Rao; Julie Rozenberg; Andreas Schmitz; Wolfgang Schoepp; Detlef Van Vuuren; Keywan Riahi

doi:10.1038/s41560-018-0179-z

Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals

David L. McCollum, Wenji Zhou, Christoph Bertram, Harmen Sytze De Boer, Valentina Bosetti, Sebastian Busch, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Marianne Fay, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Matthew Gidden, Mathijs Harmsen, Daniel Huppmann, Gokul Iyer, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Claire Nicolas, Shonali PachauriSimon Parkinson, Miguel Poblete-Cazenave, Peter Rafaj, Narasimha Rao, Julie Rozenberg, Andreas Schmitz, Wolfgang Schoepp, Detlef Van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

404 Scopus citations

Abstract

Low-carbon investments are necessary for driving the energy system transformation that is called for by both the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. Improving understanding of the scale and nature of these investments under diverging technology and policy futures is therefore of great importance to decision makers. Here, using six global modelling frameworks, we show that the pronounced reallocation of the investment portfolio required to transform the energy system will not be initiated by the current suite of countries' Nationally Determined Contributions. Charting a course toward 'well below 2 °C' instead sees low-carbon investments overtaking fossil investments globally by around 2025 or before and growing thereafter. Pursuing the 1.5 °C target demands a marked upscaling in low-carbon capital beyond that of a 2 °C-consistent future. Actions consistent with an energy transformation would increase the costs of achieving the goals of energy access and food security, but reduce the costs of achieving air-quality goals.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	589-599
Number of pages	11
Journal	Nature Energy
Volume	3
Issue number	7
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0179-z
State	Published - Jul 1 2018
Externally published	Yes

Funding

We acknowledge funding by the World Bank and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 642147 (‘CD-LINKS’ project). S.F. is supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-1702) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency Japan and JSPS KAKENHI grant number JP16K18177. P. Kolp of IIASA is also recognized for his assistance with Web database development and support. The views expressed by J.D. and A.S. are purely theirs and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission.

Funders	Funder number
Environment Research and Technology Development Fund	2-1702
World Bank Group
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme	642147
Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science	JP16K18177

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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McCollum, D. L., Zhou, W., Bertram, C., De Boer, H. S., Bosetti, V., Busch, S., Després, J., Drouet, L., Emmerling, J., Fay, M., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Gidden, M., Harmsen, M., Huppmann, D., Iyer, G., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Nicolas, C., ... Riahi, K. (2018). Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Nature Energy, 3(7), 589-599. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0179-z

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McCollum, DL, Zhou, W, Bertram, C, De Boer, HS, Bosetti, V, Busch, S, Després, J, Drouet, L, Emmerling, J, Fay, M, Fricko, O, Fujimori, S, Gidden, M, Harmsen, M, Huppmann, D, Iyer, G, Krey, V, Kriegler, E, Nicolas, C, Pachauri, S, Parkinson, S, Poblete-Cazenave, M, Rafaj, P, Rao, N, Rozenberg, J, Schmitz, A, Schoepp, W, Van Vuuren, D & Riahi, K 2018, 'Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals', Nature Energy, vol. 3, no. 7, pp. 589-599. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0179-z

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AU - Després, Jacques

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AU - Rafaj, Peter

AU - Rao, Narasimha

AU - Rozenberg, Julie

AU - Schmitz, Andreas

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Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

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