Abstract
Probable maximum precipitation (PMP), defined as the largest rainfall depth that could physically occur under a series of adverse atmospheric conditions, has been an important design criterion for critical infrastructures such as dams and nuclear power plants. To understand how PMP may respond to projected future climate forcings, we used a physics-based numerical weather simulation model to estimate PMP across various durations and areas over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) River Basin in the southeastern United States. Six sets of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model experiments driven by both reanalysis and global climate model projections, with a total of 120 storms, were conducted. The depth-area-duration relationship was derived for each set of WRF simulations and compared with the conventional PMP estimates. Our results showed that PMP driven by projected future climate forcings is higher than 1981-2010 baseline values by around 20% in the 2021-2050 near-future and 44% in the 2071-2100 far-future periods. The additional sensitivity simulations of background air temperature warming also showed an enhancement of PMP, suggesting that atmospheric warming could be one important factor controlling the increase in PMP. In light of the projected increase in precipitation extremes under a warming environment, the reasonableness and role of PMP deserve more in-depth examination.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 4808-4828 |
| Number of pages | 21 |
| Journal | Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences |
| Volume | 122 |
| Issue number | 9 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - 2017 |
Funding
We thank the editor and three anon ymous reviewers for their insightful and constructive comments. This study was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environment Research, Integrated Assessment Program and also ORNL Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program. The research used resources of the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility at ORNL. The authors are employees of UT-Battelle, LLC, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with DOE. Accordingly, the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the U.S. Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes. The data can be obtained by contacting S.-C. Kao ([email protected]) at ORNL Climate Change Science Institute. This manuscript has been authored by UT-Battelle, LLC, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the U.S. Department of Energy. The publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the United States Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for United States Government purposes. The Department of Energy will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan (http:// energy.gov/downloads/doe-public-access-plan).
| Funders | Funder number |
|---|---|
| Biological and Environment Research | |
| U.S. Department of Energy | |
| Office of Science | |
| Laboratory Directed Research and Development | DE-AC05-00OR22725 |
