Abstract
A coupled atmosphere–ocean model is necessary for tropical cyclone (TC) prediction to accurately characterize ocean feedback on atmospheric processes within the TC environment. Here, the ECMWF coupled global model is run at horizontal resolutions from 9 to 1.4 km in the atmosphere, as well as 25 and 8 km in the ocean, to identify how resolution impacts forecast accuracy of four observed major TCs in the Atlantic: Irma, Florence, Teddy, and Ida. Most of the resolutions used here are unprecedented for global models. GOES-16 and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images and best track data are used for atmospheric validation. Salinity and temperature observations from Air-Launched Autonomous Micro-Observer (ALAMO) floats are used to validate modeled upper-ocean response, including mixed layer deepening, sea surface cooling, and near-inertial waves in the wakes of TCs. Increasing atmospheric resolution leads to more realistic TC structure and stronger winds, significantly improving TC intensity forecasts and modestly improving track errors. Ocean resolution impacts the upper-ocean response but does not influence atmospheric forecasts for the fast-moving TCs considered here. Stronger mixing, sea surface cooling, and near-inertial oscillations are found for both higher atmosphere and ocean resolutions, provided the initial upper-ocean state is the same for the two ocean resolutions. Whether this agrees better with the ALAMO observations also depends on the realism of the initial upper-ocean state in the model, emphasizing the importance of ocean initialization for the accurate upper-ocean response. Overall, the model at all resolutions correctly predicts stronger mixing, surface cooling, and near-inertial oscillation amplitudes to the right of a TC center, as observed by ALAMO floats.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 2257-2278 |
| Number of pages | 22 |
| Journal | Monthly Weather Review |
| Volume | 153 |
| Issue number | 11 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Nov 2025 |
Funding
The authors thank the U.S. Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron for float deployments. This work was supported by ONR Grants N0001416WX01262, N0001417WX01704, N0001418WX01452, and N000141812819 and NOAA Grants NA13OAR4830233 and NA14OAR4320158. The authors are also grateful to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, United States) for granting access to the GOES ABI satellite data, via their Comprehensive Large Array-Data Stewardship System (CLASS). This research used resources of the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility, which is a DOE Office of Science User Facility supported under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725. Acknowledgments. The authors thank the U.S. Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron for float deployments. This work was supported by ONR Grants N0001416WX01262, N0001417WX01704, N0001418WX01452, and N000141812819 and NOAA Grants NA13OAR4830233 and NA14OAR4320158. The authors are also grateful to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, United States) for granting access to the GOES ABI satellite data, via their Comprehensive Large Array-Data Stewardship System (CLASS). This research used resources of the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility, which is a DOE Office of Science User Facility supported under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725.
Keywords
- Atmosphere-ocean interaction
- Coupled models
- Hurricanes/typhoons
- In situ oceanic observations
- Numerical weather prediction/forecasting
- Oceanic profilers