Abstract
Heat waves are a well-documented hazard that are projected to increase in intensity, duration, and frequency with climate change. Regions of the US experience widely varying temperatures; for example, 35 °C is extremely hot for spring in the Northeast but not for summer in the Southeast. It is important to evaluate projections within a regional context and at a high enough resolution to understand the risks to populations. We identify heat waves across the Conterminous US (CONUS) under SSP5–8.5 from 2020 to 2059 with an ensemble of dynamically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model outputs. We demonstrate that there are regional differences caused by seasonal and local drivers of persistent hot temperatures. Summer heat waves are increasing in intensity and duration faster than winter heat waves because of the atmospheric conditions that promote these events. Our analysis emphasizes the value of fine-resolution modeling for projecting future climate risks.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 233 |
| Journal | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Volume | 8 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Dec 2025 |
Funding
This research used resources from the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725. This research also used resources from the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, which is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.