Dynamic reliability analysis framework for integrated energy systems

A. Guler Yigitoglu; M. S. Greenwood; T. J. Harrison

doi:10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_5118-cd

Dynamic reliability analysis framework for integrated energy systems

A. Guler Yigitoglu, M. S. Greenwood, T. J. Harrison

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

This paper presents the reliability modeling framework developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the Integrated Energy System (IES). previously called Nuclear Hybrid Energy System, design. The reliability modeling framework consists of three nested models: (1) data processing. (2) accelerated aging analysis using piecewise Weibull model for component level reliability analysis with non-Markovian Stochastic Petri Nets for system level reliability' analysis, and (3) reliability-related operation and maintenance cost estimation models. Reliability fr amework coupled with Modelica. gathers operational data from the IES simulator, and with RAVEN, integrates the forecasted reliability-related cost to the overall stochastic cost optimization. A week-long run of the IES simulator demonstrates a test case that was evaluated to assess the feasibility of the fr amework and explored the turbine control valve (TCV) and the balance of plant reliability performance of the IES. Time-dependent failure rates of TCV are calculated under baseload and load-following operations simulated with the Modelica and compared to understand the influence of aging of operational components due to thermal cycling.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference
Editors	Piero Baraldi, Francesco Di Maio, Enrico Zio
Publisher	Research Publishing, Singapore
Pages	2341
Number of pages	1
ISBN (Print)	9789811485930
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_5118-cd
State	Published - 2020
Event	30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM15 2020 - Venice, Italy Duration: Nov 1 2020 → Nov 5 2020

Publication series

Name	Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference

Conference

Conference	30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM15 2020
Country/Territory	Italy
City	Venice
Period	11/1/20 → 11/5/20

Keywords

Aging
Dynamic reliability analysis
Integrated Energy System
Load-following

Access to Document

10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_5118-cd

Cite this

Guler Yigitoglu, A., Greenwood, M. S., & Harrison, T. J. (2020). Dynamic reliability analysis framework for integrated energy systems. In P. Baraldi, F. Di Maio, & E. Zio (Eds.), Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (pp. 2341). (Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference). Research Publishing, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_5118-cd

Guler Yigitoglu, A. ; Greenwood, M. S. ; Harrison, T. J. / Dynamic reliability analysis framework for integrated energy systems. Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference. editor / Piero Baraldi ; Francesco Di Maio ; Enrico Zio. Research Publishing, Singapore, 2020. pp. 2341 (Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference).

@inproceedings{37ee381bcede46d696b721d64b8f2136,

title = "Dynamic reliability analysis framework for integrated energy systems",

abstract = "This paper presents the reliability modeling framework developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the Integrated Energy System (IES). previously called Nuclear Hybrid Energy System, design. The reliability modeling framework consists of three nested models: (1) data processing. (2) accelerated aging analysis using piecewise Weibull model for component level reliability analysis with non-Markovian Stochastic Petri Nets for system level reliability' analysis, and (3) reliability-related operation and maintenance cost estimation models. Reliability fr amework coupled with Modelica. gathers operational data from the IES simulator, and with RAVEN, integrates the forecasted reliability-related cost to the overall stochastic cost optimization. A week-long run of the IES simulator demonstrates a test case that was evaluated to assess the feasibility of the fr amework and explored the turbine control valve (TCV) and the balance of plant reliability performance of the IES. Time-dependent failure rates of TCV are calculated under baseload and load-following operations simulated with the Modelica and compared to understand the influence of aging of operational components due to thermal cycling.",

keywords = "Aging, Dynamic reliability analysis, Integrated Energy System, Load-following",

author = "{Guler Yigitoglu}, A. and Greenwood, {M. S.} and Harrison, {T. J.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} ESREL 2020-PSAM15 Organizers. Published by Research Publishing, Singapore.; 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM15 2020 ; Conference date: 01-11-2020 Through 05-11-2020",

year = "2020",

doi = "10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_5118-cd",

language = "English",

isbn = "9789811485930",

series = "Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference",

publisher = "Research Publishing, Singapore",

pages = "2341",

editor = "Piero Baraldi and {Di Maio}, Francesco and Enrico Zio",

booktitle = "Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference",

}

Guler Yigitoglu, A , Greenwood, MS & Harrison, TJ 2020, Dynamic reliability analysis framework for integrated energy systems. in P Baraldi, F Di Maio & E Zio (eds), Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference. Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, Research Publishing, Singapore, pp. 2341, 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM15 2020, Venice, Italy, 11/1/20. https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_5118-cd

Dynamic reliability analysis framework for integrated energy systems. / Guler Yigitoglu, A.; Greenwood, M. S.; Harrison, T. J.
Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference. ed. / Piero Baraldi; Francesco Di Maio; Enrico Zio. Research Publishing, Singapore, 2020. p. 2341 (Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Dynamic reliability analysis framework for integrated energy systems

AU - Guler Yigitoglu, A.

AU - Greenwood, M. S.

AU - Harrison, T. J.

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © ESREL 2020-PSAM15 Organizers. Published by Research Publishing, Singapore.

PY - 2020

Y1 - 2020

N2 - This paper presents the reliability modeling framework developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the Integrated Energy System (IES). previously called Nuclear Hybrid Energy System, design. The reliability modeling framework consists of three nested models: (1) data processing. (2) accelerated aging analysis using piecewise Weibull model for component level reliability analysis with non-Markovian Stochastic Petri Nets for system level reliability' analysis, and (3) reliability-related operation and maintenance cost estimation models. Reliability fr amework coupled with Modelica. gathers operational data from the IES simulator, and with RAVEN, integrates the forecasted reliability-related cost to the overall stochastic cost optimization. A week-long run of the IES simulator demonstrates a test case that was evaluated to assess the feasibility of the fr amework and explored the turbine control valve (TCV) and the balance of plant reliability performance of the IES. Time-dependent failure rates of TCV are calculated under baseload and load-following operations simulated with the Modelica and compared to understand the influence of aging of operational components due to thermal cycling.

AB - This paper presents the reliability modeling framework developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the Integrated Energy System (IES). previously called Nuclear Hybrid Energy System, design. The reliability modeling framework consists of three nested models: (1) data processing. (2) accelerated aging analysis using piecewise Weibull model for component level reliability analysis with non-Markovian Stochastic Petri Nets for system level reliability' analysis, and (3) reliability-related operation and maintenance cost estimation models. Reliability fr amework coupled with Modelica. gathers operational data from the IES simulator, and with RAVEN, integrates the forecasted reliability-related cost to the overall stochastic cost optimization. A week-long run of the IES simulator demonstrates a test case that was evaluated to assess the feasibility of the fr amework and explored the turbine control valve (TCV) and the balance of plant reliability performance of the IES. Time-dependent failure rates of TCV are calculated under baseload and load-following operations simulated with the Modelica and compared to understand the influence of aging of operational components due to thermal cycling.

KW - Aging

KW - Dynamic reliability analysis

KW - Integrated Energy System

KW - Load-following

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85107263959&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_5118-cd

DO - 10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_5118-cd

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:85107263959

SN - 9789811485930

T3 - Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference

SP - 2341

BT - Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference

A2 - Baraldi, Piero

A2 - Di Maio, Francesco

A2 - Zio, Enrico

PB - Research Publishing, Singapore

T2 - 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM15 2020

Y2 - 1 November 2020 through 5 November 2020

ER -

Guler Yigitoglu A , Greenwood MS, Harrison TJ. Dynamic reliability analysis framework for integrated energy systems. In Baraldi P, Di Maio F, Zio E, editors, Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference. Research Publishing, Singapore. 2020. p. 2341. (Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference). doi: 10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_5118-cd

Dynamic reliability analysis framework for integrated energy systems

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

Keywords

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this