Divergent responses of spring phenology to daytime and nighttime warming

Lin Meng; Yuyu Zhou; Xuecao Li; Ghasserm R. Asrar; Jiafu Mao; Alan D. Wanamaker; Yeqiao Wang

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107832

Divergent responses of spring phenology to daytime and nighttime warming

Lin Meng
, Yuyu Zhou
, Xuecao Li
, Ghasserm R. Asrar
, Jiafu Mao
, Alan D. Wanamaker
, Yeqiao Wang

Earth Systems Modeling

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

64 Scopus citations

Abstract

Spring phenology (i.e., start of season, SOS) of plants in temperate regions has shifted earlier in response to increasing temperature. However, the respective influences of daytime and nighttime warming on the changes in SOS remain poorly understood although an ongoing asymmetric diurnal warming has been observed. In this study, we characterized the responses of satellite-derived SOS to daily minimum temperature (T_min) and maximum temperature (T_max) across Appalachian Trail regions in the Eastern United States between 2001 and 2013 using a partial correlation analysis. We found that the partial correlation coefficients between SOS and T_min(R_SOS−Tmin) are opposite in sign compared to that between SOS and T_max(R_SOS−Tmax) in 81.5% of study area. Furthermore, we found a significant decrease in R_SOS−Tmin and an increase in R_SOS−Tmax from cold to warm regions (P < 0.001). These results suggest that daytime and nighttime warmings play distinct or even contrasting roles in spring phenological changes, which should be considered in phenology models. Thus, we proposed a new framework utilizing both T_min and T_max, instead of daily average temperature (T_avg), in modeling phenology, and tested this framework using modified CMIP temperatures projections by 2100 with the consideration of changes in diurnal temperature range. The SOS advancement was less pronounced in T_maxT_min–based projection using this new framework at the mild and warm zones, compared to original T_avg –based projection, and such discrepancy between these two projections increased with time. This study disentangled phenological responses to daytime warming from nighttime warming across a wide range of temperature conditions. Our findings suggest that phenology models should incorporate such divergent phenology responses to improve future phenology projection in light of asymmetric diurnal warming, for an improved representation of land–atmosphere interactions in Earth system models.

Original language	English
Article number	107832
Journal	Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Volume	281
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107832
State	Published - Feb 15 2020

Funding

This study was funded by the NASA ROSES INCA Program “NNH14ZDA001N-INCA”. J. Mao is supported by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Scientific Focus Area (TES SFA) project funded through the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Program in the Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD) of the Biological and Environmental Research (BER) Program in the US Department of Energy Office of Science. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is managed by the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725. This study was funded by the NASA ROSES INCA Program ?NNH14ZDA001N-INCA?. J. Mao is supported by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Scientific Focus Area (TES SFA) project funded through the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Program in the Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD) of the Biological and Environmental Research (BER) Program in the US Department of Energy Office of Science. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is managed by the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725. General: We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and lead development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.

Keywords

Asymmetric warming
Partial correlation analysis
Phenology modeling
Spring green-up
Temperate forests

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10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107832

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title = "Divergent responses of spring phenology to daytime and nighttime warming",

abstract = "Spring phenology (i.e., start of season, SOS) of plants in temperate regions has shifted earlier in response to increasing temperature. However, the respective influences of daytime and nighttime warming on the changes in SOS remain poorly understood although an ongoing asymmetric diurnal warming has been observed. In this study, we characterized the responses of satellite-derived SOS to daily minimum temperature (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax) across Appalachian Trail regions in the Eastern United States between 2001 and 2013 using a partial correlation analysis. We found that the partial correlation coefficients between SOS and Tmin(RSOS−Tmin) are opposite in sign compared to that between SOS and Tmax(RSOS−Tmax) in 81.5\% of study area. Furthermore, we found a significant decrease in RSOS−Tmin and an increase in RSOS−Tmax from cold to warm regions (P < 0.001). These results suggest that daytime and nighttime warmings play distinct or even contrasting roles in spring phenological changes, which should be considered in phenology models. Thus, we proposed a new framework utilizing both Tmin and Tmax, instead of daily average temperature (Tavg), in modeling phenology, and tested this framework using modified CMIP temperatures projections by 2100 with the consideration of changes in diurnal temperature range. The SOS advancement was less pronounced in TmaxTmin–based projection using this new framework at the mild and warm zones, compared to original Tavg –based projection, and such discrepancy between these two projections increased with time. This study disentangled phenological responses to daytime warming from nighttime warming across a wide range of temperature conditions. Our findings suggest that phenology models should incorporate such divergent phenology responses to improve future phenology projection in light of asymmetric diurnal warming, for an improved representation of land–atmosphere interactions in Earth system models.",

keywords = "Asymmetric warming, Partial correlation analysis, Phenology modeling, Spring green-up, Temperate forests",

author = "Lin Meng and Yuyu Zhou and Xuecao Li and Asrar, \{Ghasserm R.\} and Jiafu Mao and Wanamaker, \{Alan D.\} and Yeqiao Wang",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019 Elsevier B.V.",

year = "2020",

month = feb,

day = "15",

doi = "10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107832",

language = "English",

volume = "281",

journal = "Agricultural and Forest Meteorology",

issn = "0168-1923",

publisher = "Elsevier",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Divergent responses of spring phenology to daytime and nighttime warming

AU - Meng, Lin

AU - Zhou, Yuyu

AU - Li, Xuecao

AU - Asrar, Ghasserm R.

AU - Mao, Jiafu

AU - Wanamaker, Alan D.

AU - Wang, Yeqiao

PY - 2020/2/15

Y1 - 2020/2/15

N2 - Spring phenology (i.e., start of season, SOS) of plants in temperate regions has shifted earlier in response to increasing temperature. However, the respective influences of daytime and nighttime warming on the changes in SOS remain poorly understood although an ongoing asymmetric diurnal warming has been observed. In this study, we characterized the responses of satellite-derived SOS to daily minimum temperature (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax) across Appalachian Trail regions in the Eastern United States between 2001 and 2013 using a partial correlation analysis. We found that the partial correlation coefficients between SOS and Tmin(RSOS−Tmin) are opposite in sign compared to that between SOS and Tmax(RSOS−Tmax) in 81.5% of study area. Furthermore, we found a significant decrease in RSOS−Tmin and an increase in RSOS−Tmax from cold to warm regions (P < 0.001). These results suggest that daytime and nighttime warmings play distinct or even contrasting roles in spring phenological changes, which should be considered in phenology models. Thus, we proposed a new framework utilizing both Tmin and Tmax, instead of daily average temperature (Tavg), in modeling phenology, and tested this framework using modified CMIP temperatures projections by 2100 with the consideration of changes in diurnal temperature range. The SOS advancement was less pronounced in TmaxTmin–based projection using this new framework at the mild and warm zones, compared to original Tavg –based projection, and such discrepancy between these two projections increased with time. This study disentangled phenological responses to daytime warming from nighttime warming across a wide range of temperature conditions. Our findings suggest that phenology models should incorporate such divergent phenology responses to improve future phenology projection in light of asymmetric diurnal warming, for an improved representation of land–atmosphere interactions in Earth system models.

AB - Spring phenology (i.e., start of season, SOS) of plants in temperate regions has shifted earlier in response to increasing temperature. However, the respective influences of daytime and nighttime warming on the changes in SOS remain poorly understood although an ongoing asymmetric diurnal warming has been observed. In this study, we characterized the responses of satellite-derived SOS to daily minimum temperature (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax) across Appalachian Trail regions in the Eastern United States between 2001 and 2013 using a partial correlation analysis. We found that the partial correlation coefficients between SOS and Tmin(RSOS−Tmin) are opposite in sign compared to that between SOS and Tmax(RSOS−Tmax) in 81.5% of study area. Furthermore, we found a significant decrease in RSOS−Tmin and an increase in RSOS−Tmax from cold to warm regions (P < 0.001). These results suggest that daytime and nighttime warmings play distinct or even contrasting roles in spring phenological changes, which should be considered in phenology models. Thus, we proposed a new framework utilizing both Tmin and Tmax, instead of daily average temperature (Tavg), in modeling phenology, and tested this framework using modified CMIP temperatures projections by 2100 with the consideration of changes in diurnal temperature range. The SOS advancement was less pronounced in TmaxTmin–based projection using this new framework at the mild and warm zones, compared to original Tavg –based projection, and such discrepancy between these two projections increased with time. This study disentangled phenological responses to daytime warming from nighttime warming across a wide range of temperature conditions. Our findings suggest that phenology models should incorporate such divergent phenology responses to improve future phenology projection in light of asymmetric diurnal warming, for an improved representation of land–atmosphere interactions in Earth system models.

KW - Asymmetric warming

KW - Partial correlation analysis

KW - Phenology modeling

KW - Spring green-up

KW - Temperate forests

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85074632610

U2 - 10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107832

DO - 10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107832

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85074632610

SN - 0168-1923

VL - 281

JO - Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

JF - Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

M1 - 107832

ER -

Divergent responses of spring phenology to daytime and nighttime warming

Abstract

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Keywords

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