Diagnosing phosphorus limitations in natural terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle models

Yan Sun; Shushi Peng; Daniel S. Goll; Philippe Ciais; Bertrand Guenet; Matthieu Guimberteau; Philippe Hinsinger; Ivan A. Janssens; Josep Peñuelas; Shilong Piao; Benjamin Poulter; Aurélie Violette; Xiaojuan Yang; Yi Yin; Hui Zeng

doi:10.1002/2016EF000472

Diagnosing phosphorus limitations in natural terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle models

Yan Sun, Shushi Peng, Daniel S. Goll, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Matthieu Guimberteau, Philippe Hinsinger, Ivan A. Janssens, Josep Peñuelas, Shilong Piao, Benjamin Poulter, Aurélie Violette, Xiaojuan Yang, Yi Yin, Hui Zeng

Earth Systems Modeling

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

Most of the Earth System Models (ESMs) project increases in net primary productivity (NPP) and terrestrial carbon (C) storage during the 21st century. Despite empirical evidence that limited availability of phosphorus (P) may limit the response of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO₂, none of the ESMs used in the previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment accounted for P limitation. We diagnosed from ESM simulations the amount of P need to support increases in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems using two approaches: the demand derived from (1) changes in C stocks and (2) changes in NPP. The C stock-based additional P demand was estimated to range between −31 and 193 Tg P and between −89 and 262 Tg P for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively, with negative values indicating a P surplus. The NPP-based demand, which takes ecosystem P recycling into account, results in a significantly higher P demand of 648–1606 Tg P for RCP2.6 and 924–2110 Tg P for RCP8.5. We found that the P demand is sensitive to the turnover of P in decomposing plant material, explaining the large differences between the NPP-based demand and C stock-based demand. The discrepancy between diagnosed P demand and actual P availability (potential P deficit) depends mainly on the assumptions about availability of the different soil P forms. Overall, future P limitation strongly depends on both soil P availability and P recycling on ecosystem scale.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	730-749
Number of pages	20
Journal	Earth's Future
Volume	5
Issue number	7
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000472
State	Published - Jul 2017

Funding

This work was supported by the European Research Council Synergy project SyG-2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P. Xiaojuan Yang was supported by the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The study has been supported by the TRY initiative on plant traits (http://www.try-db.org). The TRY initiative and database is hosted, developed and maintained by J. Kattge and G. Boenisch (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany). TRY is currently supported by DIVERSITAS/Future Earth and the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig. The source data used in this study can be available by the links in Data and Material and Text S1. The complete datasets of global gridded soil and vegetation C:P ratios can be requested from the corresponding author.

Keywords

ESM
NPP
P deficit
P demand
carbon stock
terrestrial ecosystem

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1002/2016EF000472

Cite this

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title = "Diagnosing phosphorus limitations in natural terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle models",

abstract = "Most of the Earth System Models (ESMs) project increases in net primary productivity (NPP) and terrestrial carbon (C) storage during the 21st century. Despite empirical evidence that limited availability of phosphorus (P) may limit the response of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO2, none of the ESMs used in the previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment accounted for P limitation. We diagnosed from ESM simulations the amount of P need to support increases in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems using two approaches: the demand derived from (1) changes in C stocks and (2) changes in NPP. The C stock-based additional P demand was estimated to range between −31 and 193 Tg P and between −89 and 262 Tg P for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively, with negative values indicating a P surplus. The NPP-based demand, which takes ecosystem P recycling into account, results in a significantly higher P demand of 648–1606 Tg P for RCP2.6 and 924–2110 Tg P for RCP8.5. We found that the P demand is sensitive to the turnover of P in decomposing plant material, explaining the large differences between the NPP-based demand and C stock-based demand. The discrepancy between diagnosed P demand and actual P availability (potential P deficit) depends mainly on the assumptions about availability of the different soil P forms. Overall, future P limitation strongly depends on both soil P availability and P recycling on ecosystem scale.",

keywords = "ESM, NPP, P deficit, P demand, carbon stock, terrestrial ecosystem",

author = "Yan Sun and Shushi Peng and Goll, {Daniel S.} and Philippe Ciais and Bertrand Guenet and Matthieu Guimberteau and Philippe Hinsinger and Janssens, {Ivan A.} and Josep Pe{\~n}uelas and Shilong Piao and Benjamin Poulter and Aur{\'e}lie Violette and Xiaojuan Yang and Yi Yin and Hui Zeng",

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doi = "10.1002/2016EF000472",

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T1 - Diagnosing phosphorus limitations in natural terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle models

AU - Sun, Yan

AU - Peng, Shushi

AU - Goll, Daniel S.

AU - Ciais, Philippe

AU - Guenet, Bertrand

AU - Guimberteau, Matthieu

AU - Hinsinger, Philippe

AU - Janssens, Ivan A.

AU - Peñuelas, Josep

AU - Piao, Shilong

AU - Poulter, Benjamin

AU - Violette, Aurélie

AU - Yang, Xiaojuan

AU - Yin, Yi

AU - Zeng, Hui

PY - 2017/7

Y1 - 2017/7

N2 - Most of the Earth System Models (ESMs) project increases in net primary productivity (NPP) and terrestrial carbon (C) storage during the 21st century. Despite empirical evidence that limited availability of phosphorus (P) may limit the response of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO2, none of the ESMs used in the previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment accounted for P limitation. We diagnosed from ESM simulations the amount of P need to support increases in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems using two approaches: the demand derived from (1) changes in C stocks and (2) changes in NPP. The C stock-based additional P demand was estimated to range between −31 and 193 Tg P and between −89 and 262 Tg P for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively, with negative values indicating a P surplus. The NPP-based demand, which takes ecosystem P recycling into account, results in a significantly higher P demand of 648–1606 Tg P for RCP2.6 and 924–2110 Tg P for RCP8.5. We found that the P demand is sensitive to the turnover of P in decomposing plant material, explaining the large differences between the NPP-based demand and C stock-based demand. The discrepancy between diagnosed P demand and actual P availability (potential P deficit) depends mainly on the assumptions about availability of the different soil P forms. Overall, future P limitation strongly depends on both soil P availability and P recycling on ecosystem scale.

AB - Most of the Earth System Models (ESMs) project increases in net primary productivity (NPP) and terrestrial carbon (C) storage during the 21st century. Despite empirical evidence that limited availability of phosphorus (P) may limit the response of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO2, none of the ESMs used in the previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment accounted for P limitation. We diagnosed from ESM simulations the amount of P need to support increases in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems using two approaches: the demand derived from (1) changes in C stocks and (2) changes in NPP. The C stock-based additional P demand was estimated to range between −31 and 193 Tg P and between −89 and 262 Tg P for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively, with negative values indicating a P surplus. The NPP-based demand, which takes ecosystem P recycling into account, results in a significantly higher P demand of 648–1606 Tg P for RCP2.6 and 924–2110 Tg P for RCP8.5. We found that the P demand is sensitive to the turnover of P in decomposing plant material, explaining the large differences between the NPP-based demand and C stock-based demand. The discrepancy between diagnosed P demand and actual P availability (potential P deficit) depends mainly on the assumptions about availability of the different soil P forms. Overall, future P limitation strongly depends on both soil P availability and P recycling on ecosystem scale.

KW - ESM

KW - NPP

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KW - P demand

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IS - 7

ER -

Diagnosing phosphorus limitations in natural terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle models

Abstract

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Keywords

UN SDGs

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