DeepCOVID: An Operational Deep Learning-driven Framework for Explainable Real-time COVID-19 Forecasting

Alexander Rodríguez, Anika Tabassum, Jiaming Cui, Jiajia Xie, Javen Ho, Pulak Agarwal, Bijaya Adhikari, B. Aditya Prakash

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

41 Scopus citations

Abstract

How do we forecast an emerging pandemic in real time in a purely data-driven manner? How to leverage rich heterogeneous data based on various signals such as mobility, testing, and/or disease exposure for forecasting? How to handle noisy data and generate uncertainties in the forecast? In this paper, we present DEEPCOVID, an operational deep learning framework designed for real-time COVID-19 forecasting. DEEPCOVID works well with sparse data and can handle noisy heterogeneous data signals by propagating the uncertainty from the data in a principled manner resulting in meaningful uncertainties in the forecast. The deployed framework also consists of modules for both real-time and retrospective exploratory analysis to enable interpretation of the forecasts. Results from real-time predictions (featured on the CDC website and FiveThirtyEight.com) since April 2020 indicates that our approach is competitive among the methods in the COVID-19 Forecast Hub, especially for short-term predictions.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication35th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AAAI 2021
PublisherAssociation for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence
Pages15393-15400
Number of pages8
ISBN (Electronic)9781713835974
StatePublished - 2021
Externally publishedYes
Event35th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AAAI 2021 - Virtual, Online
Duration: Feb 2 2021Feb 9 2021

Publication series

Name35th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AAAI 2021
Volume17B

Conference

Conference35th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AAAI 2021
CityVirtual, Online
Period02/2/2102/9/21

Funding

We would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their helpful suggestions which improved the paper. This paper is based on work partially supported by the NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. B. A. was in part supported by the CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement.

FundersFunder number
CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement
National Science FoundationIIS-2027862, IIS-1955883, CCF-1918770, NRT DGE-1545362, IIS-2028586
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Georgia Institute of Technology
Research Institute, Georgia Institute of Technology

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