Decadal variability of northern Asian winter monsoon shaped by the 11-year solar cycle

Chunhan Jin; Bin Wang; Jian Liu; Liang Ning; Mi Yan

doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04945-4

Decadal variability of northern Asian winter monsoon shaped by the 11-year solar cycle

Chunhan Jin
, Bin Wang
, Jian Liu
, Liang Ning
, Mi Yan

Computational Earth Sciences Group

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

17 Scopus citations

Abstract

Climate signals associated with 11-year sunspot cycle have been extensively studied in various regions of the northern hemisphere, but the precise mechanisms remain elusive. Asian winter monsoon (AWM) is the most powerful circulation system on the Earth, yet its relationship with the 11-year solar cycle has not been explored. Here the response of AWM to the 11-year solar forcing is explored by analysis of numerical experiment results obtained from the Community Earth System Model-Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) modeling project. We show that a strong 11-year solar cycle can excite a resonant response of the intrinsic leading mode of the AWM variability, resulting in a significant signal of decadal variation. The leading mode, characterized by a warm Arctic and cold Siberia, responds to the maximum solar irradiance with a peculiar 3 to 4-year delay. We propose a new mechanism to explain this delayed response, in which the 11-year solar cycle affects the AWM via modulating Arctic sea ice variation during the preceding summer. At the peak of the accumulative solar irradiance (i.e., 4 years after the maximum solar irradiance), the Arctic sea ice concentration reaches a minimum over the Barents–Kara Sea region accompanied by an Arctic sea surface warming, which then persists into the following winter, causing Arctic high-pressure extend to the Ural mountain region, which enhances Siberian High and causes a bitter winter over the northern Asia.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	6559-6568
Number of pages	10
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume	53
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04945-4
State	Published - Dec 1 2019

Funding

This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0600401), National Natural Science Foundation of China (41420104002, 41671197 and 41631175), Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (14KJA170002), Open Funds of State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, CAS (SKLLQG1820), Program of Innovative Research Team of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions of China, and Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (164320H116). Financial support from the program of China Scholarships Council (NO. 201806860029). The CESM-LME data were generated by the CESM Paleoclimate Working Group at NACR. Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (DOE INCITE) program, and Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office. This is publication No. 10770 of the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, publication No. 1399 of the International Pacific Research Center and publication No. 277 of the Earth System Modeling Center. This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0600401), National Natural Science Foundation of China (41420104002, 41671197 and 41631175), Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (14KJA170002), Open Funds of State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, CAS (SKLLQG1820), Program of Innovative Research Team of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions of China, and Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (164320H116). Financial support from the program of China Scholarships Council (NO. 201806860029). The CESM-LME data were generated by the CESM Paleoclimate Working Group at NACR. Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (DOE INCITE) program, and Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office. This is publication No. 10770 of the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, publication No. 1399 of the International Pacific Research Center and publication No. 277 of the Earth System Modeling Center.

Keywords

11-year solar cycle
Arctic sea ice
Arctic warming
Asian winter monsoon
Decadal variation

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10.1007/s00382-019-04945-4

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title = "Decadal variability of northern Asian winter monsoon shaped by the 11-year solar cycle",

abstract = "Climate signals associated with 11-year sunspot cycle have been extensively studied in various regions of the northern hemisphere, but the precise mechanisms remain elusive. Asian winter monsoon (AWM) is the most powerful circulation system on the Earth, yet its relationship with the 11-year solar cycle has not been explored. Here the response of AWM to the 11-year solar forcing is explored by analysis of numerical experiment results obtained from the Community Earth System Model-Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) modeling project. We show that a strong 11-year solar cycle can excite a resonant response of the intrinsic leading mode of the AWM variability, resulting in a significant signal of decadal variation. The leading mode, characterized by a warm Arctic and cold Siberia, responds to the maximum solar irradiance with a peculiar 3 to 4-year delay. We propose a new mechanism to explain this delayed response, in which the 11-year solar cycle affects the AWM via modulating Arctic sea ice variation during the preceding summer. At the peak of the accumulative solar irradiance (i.e., 4 years after the maximum solar irradiance), the Arctic sea ice concentration reaches a minimum over the Barents–Kara Sea region accompanied by an Arctic sea surface warming, which then persists into the following winter, causing Arctic high-pressure extend to the Ural mountain region, which enhances Siberian High and causes a bitter winter over the northern Asia.",

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AU - Jin, Chunhan

AU - Wang, Bin

AU - Liu, Jian

AU - Ning, Liang

AU - Yan, Mi

PY - 2019/12/1

Y1 - 2019/12/1

N2 - Climate signals associated with 11-year sunspot cycle have been extensively studied in various regions of the northern hemisphere, but the precise mechanisms remain elusive. Asian winter monsoon (AWM) is the most powerful circulation system on the Earth, yet its relationship with the 11-year solar cycle has not been explored. Here the response of AWM to the 11-year solar forcing is explored by analysis of numerical experiment results obtained from the Community Earth System Model-Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) modeling project. We show that a strong 11-year solar cycle can excite a resonant response of the intrinsic leading mode of the AWM variability, resulting in a significant signal of decadal variation. The leading mode, characterized by a warm Arctic and cold Siberia, responds to the maximum solar irradiance with a peculiar 3 to 4-year delay. We propose a new mechanism to explain this delayed response, in which the 11-year solar cycle affects the AWM via modulating Arctic sea ice variation during the preceding summer. At the peak of the accumulative solar irradiance (i.e., 4 years after the maximum solar irradiance), the Arctic sea ice concentration reaches a minimum over the Barents–Kara Sea region accompanied by an Arctic sea surface warming, which then persists into the following winter, causing Arctic high-pressure extend to the Ural mountain region, which enhances Siberian High and causes a bitter winter over the northern Asia.

AB - Climate signals associated with 11-year sunspot cycle have been extensively studied in various regions of the northern hemisphere, but the precise mechanisms remain elusive. Asian winter monsoon (AWM) is the most powerful circulation system on the Earth, yet its relationship with the 11-year solar cycle has not been explored. Here the response of AWM to the 11-year solar forcing is explored by analysis of numerical experiment results obtained from the Community Earth System Model-Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) modeling project. We show that a strong 11-year solar cycle can excite a resonant response of the intrinsic leading mode of the AWM variability, resulting in a significant signal of decadal variation. The leading mode, characterized by a warm Arctic and cold Siberia, responds to the maximum solar irradiance with a peculiar 3 to 4-year delay. We propose a new mechanism to explain this delayed response, in which the 11-year solar cycle affects the AWM via modulating Arctic sea ice variation during the preceding summer. At the peak of the accumulative solar irradiance (i.e., 4 years after the maximum solar irradiance), the Arctic sea ice concentration reaches a minimum over the Barents–Kara Sea region accompanied by an Arctic sea surface warming, which then persists into the following winter, causing Arctic high-pressure extend to the Ural mountain region, which enhances Siberian High and causes a bitter winter over the northern Asia.

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KW - Decadal variation

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Decadal variability of northern Asian winter monsoon shaped by the 11-year solar cycle

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