Daily forecasting of regional epidemics of coronavirus disease with bayesian uncertainty quantification, United States

Yen Ting Lin; Jacob Neumann; Ely F. Miller; Richard G. Posner; Abhishek Mallela; Cosmin Safta; Jaideep Ray; Gautam Thakur; Supriya Chinthavali; William S. Hlavacek

doi:10.3201/eid2703.203364

Daily forecasting of regional epidemics of coronavirus disease with bayesian uncertainty quantification, United States

Yen Ting Lin, Jacob Neumann, Ely F. Miller, Richard G. Posner, Abhishek Mallela, Cosmin Safta, Jaideep Ray, Gautam Thakur, Supriya Chinthavali, William S. Hlavacek

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

11 Scopus citations

Abstract

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policymaking, we formulated a mathematical model for coronavirus disease transmission within a regional population. This compartmental model accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a nonexponentially distributed incubation period, asymptomatic persons, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease. We used Bayesian inference to calibrate region-specific models for consistency with daily reports of confirmed cases in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. We also quantified uncertainty in parameter estimates and forecasts. This online learning approach enables early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	767-778
Number of pages	12
Journal	Emerging Infectious Diseases
Volume	27
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2703.203364
State	Published - Mar 2021

Funding

Y.T.L. received financial support from the Laboratory

Funders	Funder number
National Virtual Biotechnology Laboratory
National Institutes of Health
U.S. Department of Energy
National Institute of General Medical Sciences	R01GM111510

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.3201/eid2703.203364

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AU - Posner, Richard G.

AU - Mallela, Abhishek

AU - Safta, Cosmin

AU - Ray, Jaideep

AU - Thakur, Gautam

AU - Chinthavali, Supriya

AU - Hlavacek, William S.

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Daily forecasting of regional epidemics of coronavirus disease with bayesian uncertainty quantification, United States

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

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