Contrasting biological production trends over land and ocean

Yulong Zhang; Wenhong Li; Ge Sun; Jiafu Mao; Matthew Dannenberg; Jingfeng Xiao; Zuchuan Li; Haipeng Zhao; Qianru Zhang; Shineng Hu; Conghe Song; Nicolas Cassar

doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02375-1

Contrasting biological production trends over land and ocean

Yulong Zhang
, Wenhong Li
, Ge Sun
, Jiafu Mao
, Matthew Dannenberg
, Jingfeng Xiao
, Zuchuan Li
, Haipeng Zhao
, Qianru Zhang
, Shineng Hu
, Conghe Song
, Nicolas Cassar

Earth Systems Modeling

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

Terrestrial and marine ecosystems constitute the primary components of the Earth’s biosphere, yet their photosynthetic productions are typically studied separately, which limits understanding of planetary carbon uptake and biosphere health. Here, using multiple satellite-derived products, we identify contrasting net primary production (NPP) trends between land and ocean, probably reflecting their differential sensitivity to climate warming, especially in tropical regions. Planetary NPP shows an overall increase of 0.11 ± 0.13 PgC yr⁻¹ (P = 0.05) from 2003 to 2021, driven by a significant terrestrial enhancement of 0.20 ± 0.07 PgC yr⁻¹ (P < 0.001) and partially offset by an oceanic decline of −0.12 ± 0.12 PgC yr⁻¹ (P = 0.07). While land contributes to the strong upwards NPP trend, the interannual variability in global NPP is predominantly driven by the ocean, especially during strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation events. Our findings highlight the resilience and potential vulnerability of biosphere primary productivity in a warming climate, calling for integrated land–ocean monitoring and assessment to support climate mitigation initiatives.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	880-888
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	15
Issue number	8
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02375-1
State	Published - Aug 2025

Funding

We gratefully acknowledge the NASA MODIS Ocean and Land Science Teams, M. Behrenfeld (Oregon State University), M. Zhao (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center), K. A. Endsley (University of Montana), S. Liang (University of Maryland), W. Ju (Nanjing University) and J. Chen (University of Toronto) for providing global ocean and land NPP products. We also thank the modelling groups contributing to CMIP6 for their ocean biogeochemistry simulations and the TRENDY project teams for their terrestrial biosphere model outputs, as coordinated through the Global Carbon Budget initiative. In addition, we extend our sincere appreciation to the institutions and researchers listed in Supplementary Table 1 for making the publicly available land and ocean datasets used in this study. Y.Z., W.L. and G.S. are partially supported by the Duke University–USDA Forest Service collaboration (grant no. 23-JV-11330180-119). N.C. is supported by the National Science Foundation (grant no. OCE-2123198). J.X. is supported by the National Science Foundation (Macrosystem Biology and NEON-Enabled Science program: grant no. DEB-2017870). J.M. is supported by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) through the ‘Reducing Uncertainties in Biogeochemical Interactions through Synthesis and Computing’ scientific focus area and the ‘Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Scientific’ focus area, funded by the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division of the Biological and Environmental Research Office within the US Department of Energy Office of Science. ORNL is managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for the DOE under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725. We gratefully acknowledge the NASA MODIS Ocean and Land Science Teams, M. Behrenfeld (Oregon State University), M. Zhao (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center), K. A. Endsley (University of Montana), S. Liang (University of Maryland), W. Ju (Nanjing University) and J. Chen (University of Toronto) for providing global ocean and land NPP products. We also thank the modelling groups contributing to CMIP6 for their ocean biogeochemistry simulations and the TRENDY project teams for their terrestrial biosphere model outputs, as coordinated through the Global Carbon Budget initiative. In addition, we extend our sincere appreciation to the institutions and researchers listed in Supplementary Table for making the publicly available land and ocean datasets used in this study. Y.Z., W.L. and G.S. are partially supported by the Duke University–USDA Forest Service collaboration (grant no. 23-JV-11330180-119). N.C. is supported by the National Science Foundation (grant no. OCE-2123198). J.X. is supported by the National Science Foundation (Macrosystem Biology and NEON-Enabled Science program: grant no. DEB-2017870). J.M. is supported by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) through the ‘Reducing Uncertainties in Biogeochemical Interactions through Synthesis and Computing’ scientific focus area and the ‘Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Scientific’ focus area, funded by the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division of the Biological and Environmental Research Office within the US Department of Energy Office of Science. ORNL is managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for the DOE under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725.

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title = "Contrasting biological production trends over land and ocean",

abstract = "Terrestrial and marine ecosystems constitute the primary components of the Earth{\textquoteright}s biosphere, yet their photosynthetic productions are typically studied separately, which limits understanding of planetary carbon uptake and biosphere health. Here, using multiple satellite-derived products, we identify contrasting net primary production (NPP) trends between land and ocean, probably reflecting their differential sensitivity to climate warming, especially in tropical regions. Planetary NPP shows an overall increase of 0.11 ± 0.13 PgC yr−1 (P = 0.05) from 2003 to 2021, driven by a significant terrestrial enhancement of 0.20 ± 0.07 PgC yr−1 (P < 0.001) and partially offset by an oceanic decline of −0.12 ± 0.12 PgC yr−1 (P = 0.07). While land contributes to the strong upwards NPP trend, the interannual variability in global NPP is predominantly driven by the ocean, especially during strong El Ni{\~n}o–Southern Oscillation events. Our findings highlight the resilience and potential vulnerability of biosphere primary productivity in a warming climate, calling for integrated land–ocean monitoring and assessment to support climate mitigation initiatives.",

author = "Yulong Zhang and Wenhong Li and Ge Sun and Jiafu Mao and Matthew Dannenberg and Jingfeng Xiao and Zuchuan Li and Haipeng Zhao and Qianru Zhang and Shineng Hu and Conghe Song and Nicolas Cassar",

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AU - Mao, Jiafu

AU - Dannenberg, Matthew

AU - Xiao, Jingfeng

AU - Li, Zuchuan

AU - Zhao, Haipeng

AU - Zhang, Qianru

AU - Hu, Shineng

AU - Song, Conghe

AU - Cassar, Nicolas

PY - 2025/8

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N2 - Terrestrial and marine ecosystems constitute the primary components of the Earth’s biosphere, yet their photosynthetic productions are typically studied separately, which limits understanding of planetary carbon uptake and biosphere health. Here, using multiple satellite-derived products, we identify contrasting net primary production (NPP) trends between land and ocean, probably reflecting their differential sensitivity to climate warming, especially in tropical regions. Planetary NPP shows an overall increase of 0.11 ± 0.13 PgC yr−1 (P = 0.05) from 2003 to 2021, driven by a significant terrestrial enhancement of 0.20 ± 0.07 PgC yr−1 (P < 0.001) and partially offset by an oceanic decline of −0.12 ± 0.12 PgC yr−1 (P = 0.07). While land contributes to the strong upwards NPP trend, the interannual variability in global NPP is predominantly driven by the ocean, especially during strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation events. Our findings highlight the resilience and potential vulnerability of biosphere primary productivity in a warming climate, calling for integrated land–ocean monitoring and assessment to support climate mitigation initiatives.

AB - Terrestrial and marine ecosystems constitute the primary components of the Earth’s biosphere, yet their photosynthetic productions are typically studied separately, which limits understanding of planetary carbon uptake and biosphere health. Here, using multiple satellite-derived products, we identify contrasting net primary production (NPP) trends between land and ocean, probably reflecting their differential sensitivity to climate warming, especially in tropical regions. Planetary NPP shows an overall increase of 0.11 ± 0.13 PgC yr−1 (P = 0.05) from 2003 to 2021, driven by a significant terrestrial enhancement of 0.20 ± 0.07 PgC yr−1 (P < 0.001) and partially offset by an oceanic decline of −0.12 ± 0.12 PgC yr−1 (P = 0.07). While land contributes to the strong upwards NPP trend, the interannual variability in global NPP is predominantly driven by the ocean, especially during strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation events. Our findings highlight the resilience and potential vulnerability of biosphere primary productivity in a warming climate, calling for integrated land–ocean monitoring and assessment to support climate mitigation initiatives.

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DO - 10.1038/s41558-025-02375-1

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SP - 880

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JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

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Contrasting biological production trends over land and ocean

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