Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

James S. Clark; Robert Andrus; Melaine Aubry-Kientz; Yves Bergeron; Michal Bogdziewicz; Don C. Bragg; Dale Brockway; Natalie L. Cleavitt; Susan Cohen; Benoit Courbaud; Robert Daley; Adrian J. Das; Michael Dietze; Timothy J. Fahey; Istem Fer; Jerry F. Franklin; Catherine A. Gehring; Gregory S. Gilbert; Cathryn H. Greenberg; Qinfeng Guo; Janneke HilleRisLambers; Ines Ibanez; Jill Johnstone; Christopher L. Kilner; Johannes Knops; Walter D. Koenig; Georges Kunstler; Jalene M. LaMontagne; Kristin L. Legg; Jordan Luongo; James A. Lutz; Diana Macias; Eliot J.B. McIntire; Yassine Messaoud; Christopher M. Moore; Emily Moran; Jonathan A. Myers; Orrin B. Myers; Chase Nunez; Robert Parmenter; Sam Pearse; Scott Pearson; Renata Poulton-Kamakura; Ethan Ready; Miranda D. Redmond; Chantal D. Reid; Kyle C. Rodman; C. Lane Scher; William H. Schlesinger; Amanda M. Schwantes; Erin Shanahan; Shubhi Sharma; Michael A. Steele; Nathan L. Stephenson; Samantha Sutton; Jennifer J. Swenson; Margaret Swift; Thomas T. Veblen; Amy V. Whipple; Thomas G. Whitham; Andreas P. Wion; Kai Zhu; Roman Zlotin

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-20836-3

Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

James S. Clark, Robert Andrus, Melaine Aubry-Kientz, Yves Bergeron, Michal Bogdziewicz, Don C. Bragg, Dale Brockway, Natalie L. Cleavitt, Susan Cohen, Benoit Courbaud, Robert Daley, Adrian J. Das, Michael Dietze, Timothy J. Fahey, Istem Fer, Jerry F. Franklin, Catherine A. Gehring, Gregory S. Gilbert, Cathryn H. Greenberg, Qinfeng GuoJanneke HilleRisLambers, Ines Ibanez, Jill Johnstone, Christopher L. Kilner, Johannes Knops, Walter D. Koenig, Georges Kunstler, Jalene M. LaMontagne, Kristin L. Legg, Jordan Luongo, James A. Lutz, Diana Macias, Eliot J.B. McIntire, Yassine Messaoud, Christopher M. Moore, Emily Moran, Jonathan A. Myers, Orrin B. Myers, Chase Nunez, Robert Parmenter, Sam Pearse, Scott Pearson, Renata Poulton-Kamakura, Ethan Ready, Miranda D. Redmond, Chantal D. Reid, Kyle C. Rodman, C. Lane Scher, William H. Schlesinger, Amanda M. Schwantes, Erin Shanahan, Shubhi Sharma, Michael A. Steele, Nathan L. Stephenson, Samantha Sutton, Jennifer J. Swenson, Margaret Swift, Thomas T. Veblen, Amy V. Whipple, Thomas G. Whitham, Andreas P. Wion, Kai Zhu, Roman Zlotin

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

64 Scopus citations

Abstract

Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.

Original language	English
Article number	1242
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	12
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20836-3
State	Published - Dec 1 2021
Externally published	Yes

Funding

For access to sites and logistical support, we thank the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). For comments on the manuscript, we thank Valentin Journe and Becky Tang. The project was funded for three decades by the National Science Foundation (most recently, DEB-1754443), and by the Belmont Forum (1854976), NASA (AIST16-0052, AIST18-0063), and the Programme d’Investisse-ment d’Avenir under project FORBIC (18-MPGA-0004). Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US Government.

Funders	Funder number
National Science Foundation	DEB-1754443, 1854976
National Aeronautics and Space Administration	AIST16-0052, 18-MPGA-0004, AIST18-0063

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10.1038/s41467-020-20836-3

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Clark, J. S., Andrus, R., Aubry-Kientz, M., Bergeron, Y., Bogdziewicz, M., Bragg, D. C., Brockway, D., Cleavitt, N. L., Cohen, S., Courbaud, B., Daley, R., Das, A. J., Dietze, M., Fahey, T. J., Fer, I., Franklin, J. F., Gehring, C. A., Gilbert, G. S., Greenberg, C. H., ... Zlotin, R. (2021). Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects. Nature Communications, 12(1), Article 1242. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20836-3

@article{5d03ca4b2ffb4951aa7b081c131a5800,

title = "Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects",

abstract = "Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.",

author = "Clark, {James S.} and Robert Andrus and Melaine Aubry-Kientz and Yves Bergeron and Michal Bogdziewicz and Bragg, {Don C.} and Dale Brockway and Cleavitt, {Natalie L.} and Susan Cohen and Benoit Courbaud and Robert Daley and Das, {Adrian J.} and Michael Dietze and Fahey, {Timothy J.} and Istem Fer and Franklin, {Jerry F.} and Gehring, {Catherine A.} and Gilbert, {Gregory S.} and Greenberg, {Cathryn H.} and Qinfeng Guo and Janneke HilleRisLambers and Ines Ibanez and Jill Johnstone and Kilner, {Christopher L.} and Johannes Knops and Koenig, {Walter D.} and Georges Kunstler and LaMontagne, {Jalene M.} and Legg, {Kristin L.} and Jordan Luongo and Lutz, {James A.} and Diana Macias and McIntire, {Eliot J.B.} and Yassine Messaoud and Moore, {Christopher M.} and Emily Moran and Myers, {Jonathan A.} and Myers, {Orrin B.} and Chase Nunez and Robert Parmenter and Sam Pearse and Scott Pearson and Renata Poulton-Kamakura and Ethan Ready and Redmond, {Miranda D.} and Reid, {Chantal D.} and Rodman, {Kyle C.} and Scher, {C. Lane} and Schlesinger, {William H.} and Schwantes, {Amanda M.} and Erin Shanahan and Shubhi Sharma and Steele, {Michael A.} and Stephenson, {Nathan L.} and Samantha Sutton and Swenson, {Jennifer J.} and Margaret Swift and Veblen, {Thomas T.} and Whipple, {Amy V.} and Whitham, {Thomas G.} and Wion, {Andreas P.} and Kai Zhu and Roman Zlotin",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021, The Author(s).",

year = "2021",

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doi = "10.1038/s41467-020-20836-3",

language = "English",

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Clark, JS, Andrus, R, Aubry-Kientz, M, Bergeron, Y, Bogdziewicz, M, Bragg, DC, Brockway, D, Cleavitt, NL, Cohen, S, Courbaud, B, Daley, R, Das, AJ, Dietze, M, Fahey, TJ, Fer, I, Franklin, JF, Gehring, CA, Gilbert, GS, Greenberg, CH, Guo, Q, HilleRisLambers, J, Ibanez, I, Johnstone, J, Kilner, CL, Knops, J, Koenig, WD, Kunstler, G, LaMontagne, JM, Legg, KL, Luongo, J, Lutz, JA, Macias, D, McIntire, EJB, Messaoud, Y, Moore, CM, Moran, E, Myers, JA, Myers, OB, Nunez, C, Parmenter, R, Pearse, S, Pearson, S, Poulton-Kamakura, R, Ready, E, Redmond, MD, Reid, CD, Rodman, KC, Scher, CL, Schlesinger, WH, Schwantes, AM, Shanahan, E, Sharma, S, Steele, MA, Stephenson, NL, Sutton, S, Swenson, JJ, Swift, M, Veblen, TT, Whipple, AV, Whitham, TG, Wion, AP, Zhu, K & Zlotin, R 2021, 'Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects', Nature Communications, vol. 12, no. 1, 1242. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20836-3

TY - JOUR

T1 - Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

AU - Clark, James S.

AU - Andrus, Robert

AU - Aubry-Kientz, Melaine

AU - Bergeron, Yves

AU - Bogdziewicz, Michal

AU - Bragg, Don C.

AU - Brockway, Dale

AU - Cleavitt, Natalie L.

AU - Cohen, Susan

AU - Courbaud, Benoit

AU - Daley, Robert

AU - Das, Adrian J.

AU - Dietze, Michael

AU - Fahey, Timothy J.

AU - Fer, Istem

AU - Franklin, Jerry F.

AU - Gehring, Catherine A.

AU - Gilbert, Gregory S.

AU - Greenberg, Cathryn H.

AU - Guo, Qinfeng

AU - HilleRisLambers, Janneke

AU - Ibanez, Ines

AU - Johnstone, Jill

AU - Kilner, Christopher L.

AU - Knops, Johannes

AU - Koenig, Walter D.

AU - Kunstler, Georges

AU - LaMontagne, Jalene M.

AU - Legg, Kristin L.

AU - Luongo, Jordan

AU - Lutz, James A.

AU - Macias, Diana

AU - McIntire, Eliot J.B.

AU - Messaoud, Yassine

AU - Moore, Christopher M.

AU - Moran, Emily

AU - Myers, Jonathan A.

AU - Myers, Orrin B.

AU - Nunez, Chase

AU - Parmenter, Robert

AU - Pearse, Sam

AU - Pearson, Scott

AU - Poulton-Kamakura, Renata

AU - Ready, Ethan

AU - Redmond, Miranda D.

AU - Reid, Chantal D.

AU - Rodman, Kyle C.

AU - Scher, C. Lane

AU - Schlesinger, William H.

AU - Schwantes, Amanda M.

AU - Shanahan, Erin

AU - Sharma, Shubhi

AU - Steele, Michael A.

AU - Stephenson, Nathan L.

AU - Sutton, Samantha

AU - Swenson, Jennifer J.

AU - Swift, Margaret

AU - Veblen, Thomas T.

AU - Whipple, Amy V.

AU - Whitham, Thomas G.

AU - Wion, Andreas P.

AU - Zhu, Kai

AU - Zlotin, Roman

PY - 2021/12/1

Y1 - 2021/12/1

N2 - Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.

AB - Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.

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U2 - 10.1038/s41467-020-20836-3

DO - 10.1038/s41467-020-20836-3

M3 - Article

C2 - 33623042

AN - SCOPUS:85101394022

SN - 2041-1723

VL - 12

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

IS - 1

M1 - 1242

ER -

Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

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