Compound Flooding in Halmstad: Common Causes, Interannual Variability and the Effects of Climate Change

Magnus Hieronymus, Peter Berg, Faisal Bin Ashraf, Karina Barquet

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Compound flooding was investigated in Halmstad on the Swedish west coast. The highest sea level ever recorded in Sweden was recorded by the Halmstad tide gauge. Moreover, through the city runs Nissan, one of the largest hydropower-producing rivers in southern Sweden. Together these features make the city an interesting location to study compound flooding. Co-variability between different hazards are studied using a unique set of downscaled climate scenario projections produced using state-of-the-art regional atmosphere, ocean and hydrological models. River discharge and sea level annual maxima are found to be correlated with peak strength on interannual time scales. This co-variability is found to derive from a mutual dependence that these hazards have on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Precipitation also shares this dependence in winter months and acts as a driver, building up the fluvial river hazard, while potentially adding additional pluvial hazard. Trends are also assessed, and it was found that future changes in compound flooding will most likely be driven primarily by mean sea level rise and secondarily by increases in mean river discharge.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)148-165
Number of pages18
JournalTellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
Volume76
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 2024

Funding

The idea that the very extreme sea levels seen in Halmstad could be caused by wave set-up was suggested to us by Professor Tarmo Soomere. This work was done within Hydrohazards, a five-year project financed be the Swedish Civil Contingency Agency (MSB) and the Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (FORMAS). FBA is an employee of UT-Battelle, LLC, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the US DOE. Accordingly, the US government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript or allow others to do so, for US Government purposes. FBA is an employee of UT-Battelle, LLC, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the US DOE. Accordingly, the US government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript or allow others to do so, for US Government purposes.

Keywords

  • NAO
  • coastal
  • compound flooding
  • fluvial
  • pluvial

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