Comparison of burnup credit uncertainty quantification methods

The recent revision of Interim Staff Guidance (ISG-8 revision 3), issued by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, on burnup credit for criticality safety analysis of pressurized water reactor spent fuel in transportation and storage casks expands the nuclides that can be credited in the fuel composition to include minor actinides and fission products. The technical basis for development of the uncertainties associated with calculated nuclide concentrations in spent nuclear fuel that are recommended in ISG-8 was established through the use of measured isotopic data acquired from destructive radiochemical assay data for spent fuel samples. These data provide a direct experimental basis for determining uncertainties in the calculated nuclide concentrations. To provide additional insight into code uncertainties resulting from nuclear data and also the level of conservatism associated with using experimental assay benchmark data for uncertainty evaluation, a new uncertainty analysis tool in the SCALE code system that performs stochastic sampling of nuclear data has been applied to representative burnup credit calculations for spent fuel pool and dry cask storage applications methodology. The nuclear data uncertainty analysis capabilities in Sampler can account for uncertainty contributions from cross sections, fission yields, and decay data by using correlated sampling of covariance files developed for all nuclear data used by SCALE. These uncertainties associated with nuclear data evaluations are compared to corresponding values developed in ISG-8 that are based on destructive assay data, as well as to values obtained using an alternate methodology that was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute based on reactor core simulation data.