Coffee supply chain planning under climate change

Rui Zhou, Yaoping Wang, Mingzhou Jin, Jiafu Mao, Xu Zheng

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

The growing demand but uncertain supply makes the sustainability of the coffee industry a shared concern for all participants along the coffee supply chain. This study proposed a decision-making model that comprises the cultivation management, including shade management and annual agriculture management, and the supply chain logistics. A two-stage stochastic program is presented and used within a rolling horizon scheme that periodically updates input data information to deal with uncertainty associated with future climate scenarios. The program minimizes the total expected cost of the entire supply chain of arabica coffee. The study applied the model to the real case study of arabica coffee bean supply to the U.S. market, trying to answer whether arabica coffee supply can meet the U.S. demand from 2022 to 2050 and how to best mitigate any shortage through corporate-farmer partnerships. The results show that the coffee supply will have a 3% shortage in the future; medium-level shade management and more irrigation and fertilization are possible mitigation strategies. These results demonstrate the need for all participants to adopt suitable technologies for the sustainability of global coffee supply chains together.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-15
Number of pages15
JournalJournal of Integrative Environmental Sciences
Volume19
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 2022

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Keywords

  • Coffee supply chain
  • agriculture management practices
  • climate change
  • optimization
  • sustainability

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