Chapter Nine Formal Scenario Development for Environmental Impact Assessment Studies

Y. Liu; M. Mahmoud; H. Hartmann; S. Stewart; T. Wagener; D. Semmens; R. Stewart; H. Gupta; D. Dominguez; D. Hulse; R. Letcher; B. Rashleigh; C. Smith; R. Street; J. Ticehurst; M. Twery; H. van Delden; D. White

doi:10.1016/S1574-101X(08)00609-1

Chapter Nine Formal Scenario Development for Environmental Impact Assessment Studies

Y. Liu, M. Mahmoud, H. Hartmann, S. Stewart, T. Wagener, D. Semmens, R. Stewart, H. Gupta, D. Dominguez, D. Hulse, R. Letcher, B. Rashleigh, C. Smith, R. Street, J. Ticehurst, M. Twery, H. van Delden, D. White

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter › peer-review

11 Scopus citations

Abstract

Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible, though not equally likely, states (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation of possible outcomes and their implications. For environmental impact and integrated assessment studies, the process of scenario development typically involves making explicit and/or implicit assumptions about potential future conditions, such as climate change, land cover and land use changes, population growth, economic development and technological changes. Realistic assessment of scenario impacts often requires complex integrated modelling frameworks that represent environmental and socioeconomic systems to the best of our knowledge, including assumptions about plausible future conditions. In addition, scenarios have to be developed in a context relevant to the stakeholders involved, and include estimation and communication of uncertainties, to establish transparency, credibility and relevance of scenario results among the stakeholders. This paper reviews the state of the art of scenario development and analysis, proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental studies and discusses existing issues. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty involved in scenario studies, construction of scenarios of a more variable nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Environmental Modelling, Software and Decision Support
Editors	A.J. Jakeman, A.A. Voinov, A.E. Rizzoli, S.H. Chen
Pages	145-162
Number of pages	18
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-101X(08)00609-1
State	Published - 2008
Externally published	Yes

Publication series

Name	Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment
Volume	3
ISSN (Print)	1574-101X

Funding

Support for this research was provided by the US National Science Foundation Science and Technology Center for Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA) under Grant EAR-9876800. The authors would like to thank participants of the scenario workshop at the 2006 iEMSs conference for their valuable inputs. SAHRA scientists and stakeholders are appreciated for their contributions in various ways. The research described in this article has been subjected to the US Environmental Protection Agency's peer and administrative review and approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the contents reflect the views of the Agency, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.

Keywords

alternative futures
environmental impact assessment
scenario analysis
scenarios
uncertainty

Access to Document

10.1016/S1574-101X(08)00609-1

Cite this

Liu, Y., Mahmoud, M., Hartmann, H., Stewart, S., Wagener, T., Semmens, D., Stewart, R., Gupta, H., Dominguez, D., Hulse, D., Letcher, R., Rashleigh, B., Smith, C., Street, R., Ticehurst, J., Twery, M., van Delden, H., & White, D. (2008). Chapter Nine Formal Scenario Development for Environmental Impact Assessment Studies. In A. J. Jakeman, A. A. Voinov, A. E. Rizzoli, & S. H. Chen (Eds.), Environmental Modelling, Software and Decision Support (pp. 145-162). (Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment; Vol. 3). https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-101X(08)00609-1

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abstract = "Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible, though not equally likely, states (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation of possible outcomes and their implications. For environmental impact and integrated assessment studies, the process of scenario development typically involves making explicit and/or implicit assumptions about potential future conditions, such as climate change, land cover and land use changes, population growth, economic development and technological changes. Realistic assessment of scenario impacts often requires complex integrated modelling frameworks that represent environmental and socioeconomic systems to the best of our knowledge, including assumptions about plausible future conditions. In addition, scenarios have to be developed in a context relevant to the stakeholders involved, and include estimation and communication of uncertainties, to establish transparency, credibility and relevance of scenario results among the stakeholders. This paper reviews the state of the art of scenario development and analysis, proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental studies and discusses existing issues. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty involved in scenario studies, construction of scenarios of a more variable nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community.",

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author = "Y. Liu and M. Mahmoud and H. Hartmann and S. Stewart and T. Wagener and D. Semmens and R. Stewart and H. Gupta and D. Dominguez and D. Hulse and R. Letcher and B. Rashleigh and C. Smith and R. Street and J. Ticehurst and M. Twery and {van Delden}, H. and D. White",

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Liu, Y, Mahmoud, M, Hartmann, H, Stewart, S, Wagener, T, Semmens, D, Stewart, R, Gupta, H, Dominguez, D, Hulse, D, Letcher, R, Rashleigh, B, Smith, C, Street, R, Ticehurst, J, Twery, M, van Delden, H & White, D 2008, Chapter Nine Formal Scenario Development for Environmental Impact Assessment Studies. in AJ Jakeman, AA Voinov, AE Rizzoli & SH Chen (eds), Environmental Modelling, Software and Decision Support. Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment, vol. 3, pp. 145-162. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-101X(08)00609-1

Chapter Nine Formal Scenario Development for Environmental Impact Assessment Studies. / Liu, Y.; Mahmoud, M.; Hartmann, H. et al.
Environmental Modelling, Software and Decision Support. ed. / A.J. Jakeman; A.A. Voinov; A.E. Rizzoli; S.H. Chen. 2008. p. 145-162 (Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment; Vol. 3).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter › peer-review

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Liu Y, Mahmoud M, Hartmann H, Stewart S, Wagener T, Semmens D et al. Chapter Nine Formal Scenario Development for Environmental Impact Assessment Studies. In Jakeman AJ, Voinov AA, Rizzoli AE, Chen SH, editors, Environmental Modelling, Software and Decision Support. 2008. p. 145-162. (Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment). doi: 10.1016/S1574-101X(08)00609-1

Chapter Nine Formal Scenario Development for Environmental Impact Assessment Studies

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