Changes in Four Decades of Near-CONUS Tropical Cyclones in an Ensemble of 12 km Thermodynamic Global Warming Simulations

Colin M. Zarzycki; Tyrone Zhang; Andrew D. Jones; Deeksha Rastogi; Pouya Vahmani; Paul A. Ullrich

doi:10.1029/2024GL110535

Changes in Four Decades of Near-CONUS Tropical Cyclones in an Ensemble of 12 km Thermodynamic Global Warming Simulations

Colin M. Zarzycki
, Tyrone Zhang
, Andrew D. Jones
, Deeksha Rastogi
, Pouya Vahmani
, Paul A. Ullrich

Computational Urban Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

5 Scopus citations

Abstract

We evaluate tropical cyclones (TCs) in a set of thermodynamic global warming (TGW) simulations over the continental United States (CONUS). A 12 km simulation forced by ERA5 provides a 40-year historical (1980–2019) control. Four complimentary future scenarios are generated using thermodynamic deltas applied to lateral boundary, interior, and surface forcing. We curate a data set of 4,498 6-hourly TC snapshots in the control and find a corresponding “twin” in each counterfactual, permitting a paired comparison. Warming results in an increase in mean dynamical TC intensity and moisture-related quantities, with the latter being more pronounced. TC inner cores contract slightly but outer storm size remains unchanged. The frequency with which TCs become more intense is only moderately consistent, with snapshots having increased hazards ranging from 50% to 80% depending on warming level. The fractions of TCs undergoing rapid intensification and weakening both increase across all warming simulations, suggesting elevated short-term intensity variability.

Original language	English
Article number	e2024GL110535
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	51
Issue number	18
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110535
State	Published - Sep 28 2024

Funding

This work was supported by the US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research program under DE-SC0016605 “A framework for improving analysis and modeling of Earth system and intersectoral dynamics at regional scales.” Work performed by PAU is in part supported by the US DOE at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under DE-AC52-07NA27344. Work performed by ADJ and PV is supported by the DOE under DE-AC02-05CH11231. This research used resources from the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), a DOE facility located at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (DE-AC02-05CH11231). DR is an employee of UT-Battelle, LLC, under DOE DEAC05-00OR22725. Accordingly, the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript or allow others to do so, for US government purposes. DOE will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan (https://www.energy.gov/downloads/doe-public-access-plan).

Keywords

climate change
extremes
storylines
thermodynamic
tropical cyclones

Access to Document

10.1029/2024GL110535

Cite this

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title = "Changes in Four Decades of Near-CONUS Tropical Cyclones in an Ensemble of 12 km Thermodynamic Global Warming Simulations",

abstract = "We evaluate tropical cyclones (TCs) in a set of thermodynamic global warming (TGW) simulations over the continental United States (CONUS). A 12 km simulation forced by ERA5 provides a 40-year historical (1980–2019) control. Four complimentary future scenarios are generated using thermodynamic deltas applied to lateral boundary, interior, and surface forcing. We curate a data set of 4,498 6-hourly TC snapshots in the control and find a corresponding “twin” in each counterfactual, permitting a paired comparison. Warming results in an increase in mean dynamical TC intensity and moisture-related quantities, with the latter being more pronounced. TC inner cores contract slightly but outer storm size remains unchanged. The frequency with which TCs become more intense is only moderately consistent, with snapshots having increased hazards ranging from 50\% to 80\% depending on warming level. The fractions of TCs undergoing rapid intensification and weakening both increase across all warming simulations, suggesting elevated short-term intensity variability.",

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AU - Vahmani, Pouya

AU - Ullrich, Paul A.

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