Cascading Transformer Failure Probability Model Under Geomagnetic Disturbances

Pratishtha Shukla; James Nutaro; Srikanth Yoginath

doi:10.1109/WSC60868.2023.10408098

Cascading Transformer Failure Probability Model Under Geomagnetic Disturbances

Pratishtha Shukla, James Nutaro, Srikanth Yoginath

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper develops a probabilistic model to assess the cascading failure of transformers in an electric power grid experiencing geomagnetic disturbances caused by a solar storm. We propose a model in which the probability of failure is a function of the intensity of the solar storm, the physical properties of the transformer, the geographical location of the transformer, and the flow of electrical power. We demonstrate the proposed model using the IEEE 14-bus system and several notional solar storms. The model quickly computes the initial and cascading failure probabilities of the transformers in the system as a first step towards quantifying the risks posed by future solar storms.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	2023 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2023
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages	734-745
Number of pages	12
ISBN (Electronic)	9798350369663
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC60868.2023.10408098
State	Published - 2023
Event	2023 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2023 - San Antonio, United States Duration: Dec 10 2023 → Dec 13 2023

Publication series

Name	Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference
ISSN (Print)	0891-7736

Conference

Conference	2023 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2023
Country/Territory	United States
City	San Antonio
Period	12/10/23 → 12/13/23

Funding

This manuscript has been authored by UT-Battelle, LLC under Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program. The United States Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the United States Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript or allow others to do so, for United States Government purposes. The Department of Energy will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan (http://energy.gov/downloads/doe-public-access-plan).

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10.1109/WSC60868.2023.10408098

Cite this

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title = "Cascading Transformer Failure Probability Model Under Geomagnetic Disturbances",

abstract = "This paper develops a probabilistic model to assess the cascading failure of transformers in an electric power grid experiencing geomagnetic disturbances caused by a solar storm. We propose a model in which the probability of failure is a function of the intensity of the solar storm, the physical properties of the transformer, the geographical location of the transformer, and the flow of electrical power. We demonstrate the proposed model using the IEEE 14-bus system and several notional solar storms. The model quickly computes the initial and cascading failure probabilities of the transformers in the system as a first step towards quantifying the risks posed by future solar storms.",

author = "Pratishtha Shukla and James Nutaro and Srikanth Yoginath",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 IEEE.; 2023 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2023 ; Conference date: 10-12-2023 Through 13-12-2023",

year = "2023",

doi = "10.1109/WSC60868.2023.10408098",

language = "English",

series = "Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference",

publisher = "Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.",

pages = "734--745",

booktitle = "2023 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2023",

}

Shukla, P , Nutaro, J & Yoginath, S 2023, Cascading Transformer Failure Probability Model Under Geomagnetic Disturbances. in 2023 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2023. Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., pp. 734-745, 2023 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2023, San Antonio, United States, 12/10/23. https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC60868.2023.10408098

Cascading Transformer Failure Probability Model Under Geomagnetic Disturbances. / Shukla, Pratishtha ; Nutaro, James ; Yoginath, Srikanth.
2023 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2023. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2023. p. 734-745 (Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

TY - GEN

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AU - Shukla, Pratishtha

AU - Nutaro, James

AU - Yoginath, Srikanth

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - This paper develops a probabilistic model to assess the cascading failure of transformers in an electric power grid experiencing geomagnetic disturbances caused by a solar storm. We propose a model in which the probability of failure is a function of the intensity of the solar storm, the physical properties of the transformer, the geographical location of the transformer, and the flow of electrical power. We demonstrate the proposed model using the IEEE 14-bus system and several notional solar storms. The model quickly computes the initial and cascading failure probabilities of the transformers in the system as a first step towards quantifying the risks posed by future solar storms.

AB - This paper develops a probabilistic model to assess the cascading failure of transformers in an electric power grid experiencing geomagnetic disturbances caused by a solar storm. We propose a model in which the probability of failure is a function of the intensity of the solar storm, the physical properties of the transformer, the geographical location of the transformer, and the flow of electrical power. We demonstrate the proposed model using the IEEE 14-bus system and several notional solar storms. The model quickly computes the initial and cascading failure probabilities of the transformers in the system as a first step towards quantifying the risks posed by future solar storms.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85185386653

U2 - 10.1109/WSC60868.2023.10408098

DO - 10.1109/WSC60868.2023.10408098

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:85185386653

T3 - Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference

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EP - 745

BT - 2023 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2023

PB - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.

T2 - 2023 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2023

Y2 - 10 December 2023 through 13 December 2023

ER -

Cascading Transformer Failure Probability Model Under Geomagnetic Disturbances

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