Abstract
The importance of phosphorus (P) in regulating ecosystem responses to climate change has fostered P-cycle implementation in land surface models, but their CO2 effects predictions have not been evaluated against measurements. Here, we perform a data-driven model evaluation where simulations of eight widely used P-enabled models were confronted with observations from a long-term free-air CO2 enrichment experiment in a mature, P-limited Eucalyptus forest. We show that most models predicted the correct sign and magnitude of the CO2 effect on ecosystem carbon (C) sequestration, but they generally overestimated the effects on plant C uptake and growth. We identify leaf-to- canopy scaling of photosynthesis, plant tissue stoichiometry, plant belowground C allocation, and the subsequent consequences for plant-microbial interaction as key areas in which models of ecosystem C-P interaction can be improved. Together, this data-model intercomparison reveals data-driven insights into the performance and functionality of P-enabled models and adds to the existing evidence that the global CO2-driven carbon sink is overestimated by models.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | adl5822 |
| Journal | Science Advances |
| Volume | 10 |
| Issue number | 27 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Jul 2024 |
Funding
We acknowledge technical support by V. Kumar, C. McNamara, S. Wohl, and C. Barton and the team who assisted with data collection. EucFACE was built as an initiative of the Australian Government as part of the Nation-building Economic Stimulus Package and is supported by the Australian Commonwealth in collaboration with Western Sydney University. Funding: This work was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China National R&D Program [grant 2022YFF0801904 (M.J.)], Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China [grant 226-2023- 00019 (M.J.)], Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation [grant LR24C030001 (M.J.)], Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation [grant LZ23C030001 (M.J.)], National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant 32301383 (M.J.)], Australian Research Council [grant DE210101654 (M.J.)], Australian Research Council [grant FL190100003 (B.E.M.)], Swedish Research Council [grant 2020-05051 (D.W., B.S., D.S.E., and C.M.)], ANR CLAND Convergence Institute [grant ANR-16- C ONV-0003 (D.S.G.)], Carbon Loss In Plants, Soils and Oceans (CALIPSO) project (D.S.G.), European Research Council European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program [grant 647204 (L.Y. and S.Z.)], Ram\u00F3n y Cajal program from the MICINN [grant RYC-2017 22032 (R.O.-H .)], PAIDI 2020 [grant 20_00323 (R.O.-H .)], PID2019-106004RA- I00/ AEI/10.13039/501100011033 (R.O.-H .), and U.S. NSF Biological Integration Institutes [grant DBI-2021898 (P.R.)]. Author contributions: Conceptualization: M.J., B.S., B.E.M., and D.S.E. Coordination: M.J. Modeling: M.J., D.W., J.K., D.S.G., S.O., L.Y., K.F., H.Z., X.Y., S.Z., B.S., and B.E.M. Data collection: K.Y.C., Y.C., D.S.E., C.M., I.A., M.M.B., M.F., A.G., L.C.-G., S.H., K.A.J., P.M., R.O.-H ., V.P., J. Pihlblad, J.P.N., J. Powell, S.P., P.R., and M.R. Visualization: M.J. and H.L. Writing-original draft: M.J. Writing-review and editing: M.J., B.S., B.E.M., D.S.E., D.W., J.K., D.S.G., S.O., L.Y., K.F., H.Z., H.L., X.Y., S.Z., K.Y.C., Y.C., D.S.E., C.M., I.A., M.M.B., M.F., A.G., L.C.-G., S.H., K.A.J., P.M., R.O.-H ., V.P., J. Pihlblad, J.P.N., J. Powell, S.P., P.R., and M.R. Competing interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Data and materials availability: All data needed to evaluate the conclusions in the paper are present in the paper and/or the Supplementary Materials. Data and model simulation output of this study are available via the Figshare link (https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.25669755. v1). Codes for processing the model simulation output are available via the Figshare link (https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.25853452.v1). Acknowledgments: We acknowledge technical support by v. Kumar, c. Mcnamara, S. Wohl, and c. Barton and the team who assisted with data collection. eucFAce was built as an initiative of the Australian Government as part of the nation-building economic Stimulus Package and is supported by the Australian commonwealth in collaboration with Western Sydney University. Funding: this work was supported by the Ministry of Science and technology of china national R&d Program [grant 2022YFF0801904 (M.J.)], Fundamental Research Funds for the central Universities of china [grant 226-2023-00019 (M.J.)], Zhejiang Provincial natural Science Foundation [grant lR24c030001 (M.J.)], Zhejiang Provincial natural Science Foundation [grant lZ23c030001 (M.J.)], national natural Science Foundation of china [grant 32301383 (M.J.)], Australian Research council [grant de210101654 (M.J.)], Australian Research council [grant Fl190100003 (B.e.M.)], Swedish Research council [grant 2020-05051 (d.W., B.S., d.S.e., and c.M.)], AnR clAnd convergence institute [grant AnR-16-cOnv-0003 (d.S.G.)], carbon loss in Plants, Soils and Oceans (cAliPSO) project (d.S.G.), european Research council european Union\u2019s horizon 2020 research and innovation program [grant 647204 (l.Y. and S.Z.)], Ram\u00F3n y cajal program from the Micinn [grant RYc-2017 22032 (R.O.-h.)], PAidi 2020 [grant 20_00323 (R.O.-h.)], Pid2019-106004RA-i00/Aei/10.13039/501100011033 (R.O.-h.), and U.S. nSF Biological integration institutes [grant dBi-2021898 (P.R.)]. Author contributions: conceptualization: M.J., B.S., B.e.M., and d.S.e. coordination: M.J. Modeling: M.J., d.W., J.K., d.S.G., S.O., l.Y., K.F., h.Z., X.Y., S.Z., B.S., and B.e.M. data collection: K.Y.c., Y.c., d.S.e., c.M., i.A., M.M.B., M.F., A.G., l.c.-G., S.h., K.A.J., P.M., R.O.-h., v.P., J. Pihlblad, J.P.n., J. Powell, S.P., P.R., and M.R. visualization: M.J. and h.l. Writing\u2014original draft: M.J. Writing\u2014review and editing: M.J., B.S., B.e.M., d.S.e., d.W., J.K., d.S.G., S.O., l.Y., K.F., h.Z., h.l., X.Y., S.Z., K.Y.c., Y.c., d.S.e., c.M., i.A., M.M.B., M.F., A.G., l.c.-G., S.h., K.A.J., P.M., R.O.-h., v.P., J. Pihlblad, J.P.n., J. Powell, S.P., P.R., and M.R. Competing interests: the authors declare that they have no competing interests. Data and materials availability: All data needed to evaluate the conclusions in the paper are present in the paper and/or the Supplementary Materials. data and model simulation output of this study are available via the Figshare link (https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.25669755. v1). codes for processing the model simulation output are available via the Figshare link (https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.25853452.v1).