Abstract
The U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Energy jointly analyzed the economic potential for, and impacts of, large-scale bioenergy crop production in the United States. An agricultural sector model (POLYSYS) was modified to include three potential bioenergy crops (switchgrass, hybrid poplar, and willow). At farmgate prices of US $2.44/GJ, an estimated 17 million hectares of bioenergy crops, annually yielding 171 million dry Mg of biomass, could potentially be produced at a profit greater than existing agricultural uses for the land. The estimate assumes high productivity management practices are permitted on Conservation Reserve Program lands. Traditional crops prices are estimated to increase 9 to 14 percent above baseline prices and farm income increases annually by US $6.0 billion above baseline. At farmgate prices of US $1.83/GJ, an estimated 7.9 million hectares of bioenergy crops, annually yielding 55 million dry Mg of biomass, could potentially be produced at a profit greater than existing agricultural uses for the land. The estimate assumes management practices intended to achieve high environmental benefits on Conservation Reserve Program lands. Traditional crops prices are estimated to increase 4 to 9 percent above baseline prices and farm income increases annually by US $2.8 billion above baseline.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 313-333 |
| Number of pages | 21 |
| Journal | Environmental and Resource Economics |
| Volume | 24 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Apr 1 2003 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Funding
Abbreviations: ABS – UT-APAC budgeting model; ASD – Agricultural Statistical District; ASM – Agricultural Sector Model; ATLAS – Aggregate Timberland Assessment System; BFDP – Biomass Feedstock Development Program; BIOCOST – Oak Ridge National Laboratory budget generator model to estimate bioenergy crop production costs; CRP – Conservation Reserve Program; DOE – United States Department of Energy; DT – Dry U.S. ton; EJ – Exojoule (1015 joules); FAPRI – Food and Agricultural Policy Analysis Research Institute; FASOM – Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model; LP – Linear Programming; MBTU – Million British Thermal Units; Mg – Megagram (metric tonne); NAPAP – North American Paper and Pulp Model; NPV – Net Present Value; POLYSIM – Policy Simulation Model; POLYSYS – Policy Analysis System; Quad – 1015 British Thermal Units (Btu); RASS – Regional Allocation Summary System; TAMM – Timber Assessment Market Model; U.S. – United States; USDA – United States Department of Agriculture; US $/GJ – United States Dollar per Gigajoule; UT-APAC – University of Tennessee Agricultural Policy ★ This research is sponsored by USDA and DOE and performed in part at ORNL, ORNL is managed by UT-Battelle, LLC under US-DOE contract no. DE-AC05-00 OR 22725.
Keywords
- Agricultural income
- Bioenergy crops
- Biomass
- Conservation Reserve Program
- Hybrid poplar
- Land-use changes
- Switchgrass
- Willow