Abstract
A Bayesian approach is applied to the estimation of source characteristics for above ground explosive events using infrasonic observations at propagation distances of hundreds of kilometres. Propagation-based, stochastic path geometry models have previously been investigated for infrasonic source localization with promising results; here, statistical transmission loss models are investigated using archived atmospheric specifications and propagation simulation tools to demonstrate that such an approach is applicable to source characterization. The resulting transmission loss models are utilized in estimating near-source spectral characteristics for explosive events from infrasonic observations at regional distances of several hundred kilometres or more using a Bayesian framework to compute a combined estimate. The nearsource spectral characterization can be used along with a simplistic explosive source model to compute an estimate of explosive yield with quantifiable uncertainty. The yield estimation framework is evaluated using above-ground explosive events from the western US during the fall of 2012 with promising results.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 240-251 |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Journal | Geophysical Journal International |
| Volume | 215 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Oct 1 2018 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Funding
The authors would like to thank Rod Whitaker for insightful discussion related to existing infrasonic yield estimation methods, Roger Waxler for discussion of near field signatures and propagation modelling aspects of this work and David Green for insightful review of the manuscript. This research was supported by the National Nuclear Security Agency, Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development. The Humming Roadrunner experiment was conducted by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency and the infrasonic data used in this analysis were collected by the University of Mississippi’s National Center for Physical Acoustics.
| Funders | Funder number |
|---|---|
| National Nuclear Security Agency | |
| Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation |
Keywords
- Acooustic-gravity waves
- Fourier analysis
- Numerical modelling
- Statistical methods