Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation in the Middle East

Elias Massoud, Theresa Massoud, Duane Waliser, Bin Guan, Agniv Sengputa

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterpeer-review

Abstract

This study explores historical mean climate and future projected change of atmospheric rivers (ARs) and precipitation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. A suite of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, historical and RCP8.5 scenarios) and other observations are used to estimate AR frequency and mean daily precipitation. Despite the arid-to-semi-arid climate in MENA, parts of this region experience frequent and intense ARs, which largely contribute to the total annual precipitation, such as in the mountainous areas of Turkey and Iran. By the end of this century, this study reports that AR frequency is projected to increase by ~20–40% for the North Africa and Mediterranean regions (including any areas with latitudes 35 N and higher). However, in these regions, mean daily precipitation (i.e., regardless of the presence of ARs) is projected to decrease by ~15–30%. For other regions within MENA, such as the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, minor changes in AR frequency are expected (±10%), yet mean precipitation for these regions is projected to increase (~50%). Generally, the sign of change in projected AR frequency is opposite to the sign of change in projected mean daily precipitation for most areas within the MENA region.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSpringer Water
PublisherSpringer Nature
Pages49-70
Number of pages22
DOIs
StatePublished - 2022

Publication series

NameSpringer Water
ISSN (Print)2364-6934
ISSN (Electronic)2364-8198

Keywords

  • Atmospheric rivers
  • Climate change
  • Middle East
  • North Africa
  • Precipitation

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