Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble

Claas Teichmann; Daniela Jacob; Armelle Reca Remedio; Thomas Remke; Lars Buntemeyer; Peter Hoffmann; Arne Kriegsmann; Ludwig Lierhammer; Katharina Bülow; Torsten Weber; Kevin Sieck; Diana Rechid; Gaby S. Langendijk; Erika Coppola; Filippo Giorgi; James M. Ciarlo; Francesca Raffaele; Graziano Giuliani; Gao Xuejie; Taleena Rae Sines; Jose Abraham Torres-Alavez; Sushant Das; Fabio Di Sante; Emanuela Pichelli; Russel Glazer; Moetasim Ashfaq; Melissa Bukovsky; Eun Soon Im

doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05494-x

Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble

Claas Teichmann, Daniela Jacob, Armelle Reca Remedio, Thomas Remke, Lars Buntemeyer, Peter Hoffmann, Arne Kriegsmann, Ludwig Lierhammer, Katharina Bülow, Torsten Weber, Kevin Sieck, Diana Rechid, Gaby S. Langendijk, Erika Coppola, Filippo Giorgi, James M. Ciarlo, Francesca Raffaele, Graziano Giuliani, Gao Xuejie, Taleena Rae SinesJose Abraham Torres-Alavez, Sushant Das, Fabio Di Sante, Emanuela Pichelli, Russel Glazer, Moetasim Ashfaq, Melissa Bukovsky, Eun Soon Im

Computational Earth Sciences Group

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

81 Scopus citations

Abstract

The new Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) ensemble provides high-resolution, consistent regional climate change projections for the major inhabited areas of the world. It serves as a solid scientific basis for further research related to vulnerability, impact, adaptation and climate services in addition to existing CORDEX simulations. The aim of this study is to investigate and document the climate change information provided by the CORDEX-CORE simulation ensemble, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) CORDEX community. An overview of the annual and monthly mean climate change information in selected regions in different CORDEX domains is presented for temperature and precipitation, providing the foundation for detailed follow-up studies and applications. Initially, two regional climate models (RCMs), REMO and RegCM were used to downscale global climate model output. The driving simulations by AR5 global climate models (AR5-GCMs) were selected to cover the spread of high, medium, and low equilibrium climate sensitivity at a global scale. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble has doubled the spatial resolution compared to the previously existing CORDEX simulations in most of the regions (25km (0.22^∘) versus 50km (0.44^∘)) leading to a potentially improved representation of, e.g., physical processes in the RCMs. The analysis focuses on changes in the IPCC physical climate reference regions. The results show a general reasonable representation of the spread of the temperature and precipitation climate change signals of the AR5-GCMs by the CORDEX-CORE simulations in the investigated regions in all CORDEX domains by mostly covering the AR5 interquartile range of climate change signals. The simulated CORDEX-CORE monthly climate change signals mostly follow the AR5-GCMs, although for specific regions they show a different change in the course of the year compared to the AR5-GCMs, especially for RCP8.5, which needs to be investigated further in region specific process studies.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1269-1292
Number of pages	24
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume	57
Issue number	5-6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05494-x
State	Published - Sep 2021

Funding

We would like to thank the modeling groups for computing and providing the RCM simulations in the frame of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Framework and COmmon Regional Experiment (CORE). The CORDEX-CORE REMO simulations were performed under the GERICS/HZG share at the German Climate Computing Centre in Hamburg (DKRZ). We acknowledge DKRZ in Hamburg for providing the high-computing capacity, and the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for hosting the CORDEX-CORE projections. We also acknowledge the World Climate Research Program Working Group on Coupled Modelling and all the modeling groups for computing and providing the CMIP5 which was used as boundary forcing for the CORDEX-CORE simulations. Finally, we would like to thank the reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions.

Keywords

CORDEX
CORDEX-CORE
IPCC reference regions
Regional climate change

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1007/s00382-020-05494-x

Cite this

Teichmann, C., Jacob, D., Remedio, A. R., Remke, T., Buntemeyer, L., Hoffmann, P., Kriegsmann, A., Lierhammer, L., Bülow, K., Weber, T., Sieck, K., Rechid, D., Langendijk, G. S., Coppola, E., Giorgi, F., Ciarlo, J. M., Raffaele, F., Giuliani, G., Xuejie, G., ... Im, E. S. (2021). Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble. Climate Dynamics, 57(5-6), 1269-1292. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05494-x

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abstract = "The new Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) ensemble provides high-resolution, consistent regional climate change projections for the major inhabited areas of the world. It serves as a solid scientific basis for further research related to vulnerability, impact, adaptation and climate services in addition to existing CORDEX simulations. The aim of this study is to investigate and document the climate change information provided by the CORDEX-CORE simulation ensemble, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) CORDEX community. An overview of the annual and monthly mean climate change information in selected regions in different CORDEX domains is presented for temperature and precipitation, providing the foundation for detailed follow-up studies and applications. Initially, two regional climate models (RCMs), REMO and RegCM were used to downscale global climate model output. The driving simulations by AR5 global climate models (AR5-GCMs) were selected to cover the spread of high, medium, and low equilibrium climate sensitivity at a global scale. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble has doubled the spatial resolution compared to the previously existing CORDEX simulations in most of the regions (25km (0.22∘) versus 50km (0.44∘)) leading to a potentially improved representation of, e.g., physical processes in the RCMs. The analysis focuses on changes in the IPCC physical climate reference regions. The results show a general reasonable representation of the spread of the temperature and precipitation climate change signals of the AR5-GCMs by the CORDEX-CORE simulations in the investigated regions in all CORDEX domains by mostly covering the AR5 interquartile range of climate change signals. The simulated CORDEX-CORE monthly climate change signals mostly follow the AR5-GCMs, although for specific regions they show a different change in the course of the year compared to the AR5-GCMs, especially for RCP8.5, which needs to be investigated further in region specific process studies.",

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author = "Claas Teichmann and Daniela Jacob and Remedio, {Armelle Reca} and Thomas Remke and Lars Buntemeyer and Peter Hoffmann and Arne Kriegsmann and Ludwig Lierhammer and Katharina B{\"u}low and Torsten Weber and Kevin Sieck and Diana Rechid and Langendijk, {Gaby S.} and Erika Coppola and Filippo Giorgi and Ciarlo, {James M.} and Francesca Raffaele and Graziano Giuliani and Gao Xuejie and Sines, {Taleena Rae} and Torres-Alavez, {Jose Abraham} and Sushant Das and {Di Sante}, Fabio and Emanuela Pichelli and Russel Glazer and Moetasim Ashfaq and Melissa Bukovsky and Im, {Eun Soon}",

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year = "2021",

month = sep,

doi = "10.1007/s00382-020-05494-x",

language = "English",

volume = "57",

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Teichmann, C, Jacob, D, Remedio, AR, Remke, T, Buntemeyer, L, Hoffmann, P, Kriegsmann, A, Lierhammer, L, Bülow, K, Weber, T, Sieck, K, Rechid, D, Langendijk, GS, Coppola, E, Giorgi, F, Ciarlo, JM, Raffaele, F, Giuliani, G, Xuejie, G, Sines, TR, Torres-Alavez, JA, Das, S, Di Sante, F, Pichelli, E, Glazer, R, Ashfaq, M, Bukovsky, M & Im, ES 2021, 'Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble', Climate Dynamics, vol. 57, no. 5-6, pp. 1269-1292. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05494-x

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AU - Teichmann, Claas

AU - Jacob, Daniela

AU - Remedio, Armelle Reca

AU - Remke, Thomas

AU - Buntemeyer, Lars

AU - Hoffmann, Peter

AU - Kriegsmann, Arne

AU - Lierhammer, Ludwig

AU - Bülow, Katharina

AU - Weber, Torsten

AU - Sieck, Kevin

AU - Rechid, Diana

AU - Langendijk, Gaby S.

AU - Coppola, Erika

AU - Giorgi, Filippo

AU - Ciarlo, James M.

AU - Raffaele, Francesca

AU - Giuliani, Graziano

AU - Xuejie, Gao

AU - Sines, Taleena Rae

AU - Torres-Alavez, Jose Abraham

AU - Das, Sushant

AU - Di Sante, Fabio

AU - Pichelli, Emanuela

AU - Glazer, Russel

AU - Ashfaq, Moetasim

AU - Bukovsky, Melissa

AU - Im, Eun Soon

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AB - The new Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) ensemble provides high-resolution, consistent regional climate change projections for the major inhabited areas of the world. It serves as a solid scientific basis for further research related to vulnerability, impact, adaptation and climate services in addition to existing CORDEX simulations. The aim of this study is to investigate and document the climate change information provided by the CORDEX-CORE simulation ensemble, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) CORDEX community. An overview of the annual and monthly mean climate change information in selected regions in different CORDEX domains is presented for temperature and precipitation, providing the foundation for detailed follow-up studies and applications. Initially, two regional climate models (RCMs), REMO and RegCM were used to downscale global climate model output. The driving simulations by AR5 global climate models (AR5-GCMs) were selected to cover the spread of high, medium, and low equilibrium climate sensitivity at a global scale. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble has doubled the spatial resolution compared to the previously existing CORDEX simulations in most of the regions (25km (0.22∘) versus 50km (0.44∘)) leading to a potentially improved representation of, e.g., physical processes in the RCMs. The analysis focuses on changes in the IPCC physical climate reference regions. The results show a general reasonable representation of the spread of the temperature and precipitation climate change signals of the AR5-GCMs by the CORDEX-CORE simulations in the investigated regions in all CORDEX domains by mostly covering the AR5 interquartile range of climate change signals. The simulated CORDEX-CORE monthly climate change signals mostly follow the AR5-GCMs, although for specific regions they show a different change in the course of the year compared to the AR5-GCMs, especially for RCP8.5, which needs to be investigated further in region specific process studies.

KW - CORDEX

KW - CORDEX-CORE

KW - IPCC reference regions

KW - Regional climate change

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DO - 10.1007/s00382-020-05494-x

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JO - Climate Dynamics

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ER -

Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble

Abstract

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Keywords

UN SDGs

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