Assessing long-term hydrologic effects of land use change

Many communities are seeking to understand how future development may affect a watershed, and they are using this information to develop long-term watershed management plans that protect their water supply. As part of work on the Cuppy-McClure watershed in Indiana, a land use-runoff estimation technique was developed based on the local long-term climate record. The technique, which uses the core of the US Department of Agriculture's curve number method, produces results that can be easily understood and used by managers, planners, and developers. The technique can estimate the effect of development on watershed hydrology, and it can quickly provide sensitivity analyses of alternative proposed land uses. Analysis of Cuppy-McClure identified six subbasins that dominate the cumulative effects of proposed land uses and that should be the focus of watershed management.