Analysis of Sahelian vegetation dynamics using NOAA-AVHRR NDVI data from 1981-2003

Remotely sensed measurements from NOAA-AVHRR expressed as normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) have generated a 23-year time series appropriate for long-term studies of Sahel region. The close coupling between Sahelian rainfall and the growth of vegetation has made it possible to utilize NDVI data as proxy for the land surface response to precipitation variability. Examination of this time series reveals two periods; (a) 1982-1993 marked by below average NDVI and persistence of drought with a signature large-scale drought during the 1982-1985 period; and (b) 1994-2003, marked by a trend towards 'wetter' conditions with region-wide above normal NDVI conditions with maxima in 1994 and 1999. These patterns agree with recent region-wide trends in Sahel rainfall. However taken in the context of long-term Sahelian climate history, these conditions are still far below the wetter conditions that prevailed in the region from 1930 to 1965. These trend patterns can therefore only be considered to be a gradual recovery from extreme drought conditions that peaked during the 1983-1985 period. Systematic studies of changes on the landscape using high spatial resolution satellite data sets such as those from LANDSAT, SPOT and MODIS will provide a detailed spatial quantification and description of the recovery patterns at local scale.