An Integrative Model for Soil Biogeochemistry and Methane Processes: I. Model Structure and Sensitivity Analysis

Environmental changes are anticipated to generate substantial impacts on carbon cycling in peatlands, affecting terrestrial-climate feedbacks. Understanding how peatland methane (CH₄) fluxes respond to these changing environments is critical for predicting the magnitude of feedbacks from peatlands to global climate change. To improve predictions of CH₄ fluxes in response to changes such as elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and warming, it is essential for Earth system models to include increased realism to simulate CH₄ processes in a more mechanistic way. To address this need, we incorporated a new microbial-functional group-based CH₄ module into the Energy Exascale Earth System land model (ELM) and tested it with multiple observational data sets at an ombrotrophic peatland bog in northern Minnesota. The model is able to simulate observed land surface CH₄ fluxes and fundamental mechanisms contributing to these throughout the soil profile. The model reproduced the observed vertical distributions of dissolved organic carbon and acetate concentrations. The seasonality of acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis—two key processes for CH₄ production—and CH₄ concentration along the soil profile were accurately simulated. Meanwhile, the model estimated that plant-mediated transport, diffusion, and ebullition contributed to ∼23.5%, 15.0%, and 61.5% of CH₄ transport, respectively. A parameter sensitivity analysis showed that CH₄ substrate and CH₄ production were the most critical mechanisms regulating temporal patterns of surface CH₄ fluxes both under ambient conditions and warming treatments. This knowledge will be used to improve Earth system model predictions of these high-carbon ecosystems from plot to regional scales.