An agent-based model of conflict in East Africa and the effect of watering holes

William G. Kennedy, Atesmachew B. Hailegiorgis, Mark Rouleau, Jeffrey K. Bassett, Mark Coletti, Gabriel C. Balan, Tim Gulden

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

12 Scopus citations

Abstract

An agent-based model conflict between herdsmen in east Africa using the MASON agent-based simulation environment is presented. Herders struggle to keep their herds fed and watered in a GIS-based, spatially diverse environment with data-driven seasonal cycles. The model produces realistic carrying capacity dynamics and basically plausible conflict dynamics. With the rather basic set of behaviors, herders come into conflict over limited resources and one clan is eventually eliminated. We find that greater environmental scarcity leads to faster domination by a single group. At the same time, we note that there is tremendous variability from run to run in the rate and timing of the transition from a conflict-prone, multi-clan environment to hegemony of a single group.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication19th Annual Conference on Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation 2010, BRiMS 2010
Pages112-119
Number of pages8
StatePublished - 2010
Externally publishedYes
Event19th Annual Conference on Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation 2010, BRiMS 2010 - Charleston, SC, United States
Duration: Mar 22 2010Mar 25 2010

Publication series

Name19th Annual Conference on Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation 2010, BRiMS 2010

Conference

Conference19th Annual Conference on Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation 2010, BRiMS 2010
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityCharleston, SC
Period03/22/1003/25/10

Keywords

  • Agent-based modeling
  • Conflict modeling
  • MASON

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