Abstract
The successful validation of theory-based models of transport, magnetohydrodynamic stability, heating and current drive, with tokamak measurements over the last 20 years, has laid the foundation for a new era where these models can be routinely used in a 'predict first' approach to design and predict the outcomes of experiments on tokamaks today. The capability to predict the plasma confinement and core profiles with a quantified uncertainty, based on a multi-machine, international, database of experience, will provide confidence that a proposed discharge will remain within the operational limits of the tokamak. Developing this predictive capability for the first generation of burning plasma devices, beginning with ITER, and progressing to tokamak demonstration reactors, is a critical mission of fusion energy research. Major advances have been made implementing this predict first methodology on today's tokamaks. An overview of several of these recent advances will be presented, providing the integrated modeling foundations of the experimental successes. The first steps to include boundary plasmas, and tokamak control systems, have been made. A commitment to predicting experiments as part of the planning process is needed in order to collect predictive accuracy data and evolve the models and software into a robust whole discharge pulse design simulator.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 042005 |
| Journal | Nuclear Fusion |
| Volume | 62 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Apr 2022 |
Funding
This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. This work has been carried out within the framework of the EUROfusion Consortium and has received funding from the Euratom research and training programme 2014–2018 and 2019–2020 under Grant Agreement No. 633053. The views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of the European Commission. Acknowledgments The credit for the remarkable progress in predictive modeling belongs to the authors of the cited papers. Encouragement and source material contributions were contributed by E. Belli, P. Mantica, J. Snipes, B. Grierson, F. Casson, J. Hilleshiem, C. Kiefer, I. Casiraghi, A. Mariani, O. Meneghini, and A. Garafalo This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy under DE-SC0019736, DE-FG02-95ER54309, and DE-FC02-04ER54698.
Keywords
- integrated modeling
- tokamak
- validation
