Abstract
SIPmath represents uncertainties as coherent arrays of realizations called SIPs, which may be shared between diverse simulation applications across the enterprise. This allows simulations to be linked together to form networks in which the output distributions of one simulation become the input distributions of another simulation. Furthermore, the outputs of stochastic models in packages such as R, Python or discrete event simulations may be shared with managers using interactive dashboards in native Microsoft Excel. Two recent open source advances in simulation modeling and analysis have yielded great efficiencies in this approach. Metalog distributions can fit virtually any continuous distribution of data with an analytical F-Inverse function much like a Taylor's series. The HDR Portable Uniform Random Number Generator produces identical results on all platforms including a single cell formula in Excel. Participants are encouraged to bring their laptops for a hands-on learning experience.
| Original language | English |
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| Title of host publication | 2019 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2019 |
| Publisher | Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. |
| Pages | 105-117 |
| Number of pages | 13 |
| ISBN (Electronic) | 9781728132839 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Dec 2019 |
| Externally published | Yes |
| Event | 2019 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2019 - National Harbor, United States Duration: Dec 8 2019 → Dec 11 2019 |
Publication series
| Name | Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference |
|---|---|
| Volume | 2019-December |
| ISSN (Print) | 0891-7736 |
Conference
| Conference | 2019 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2019 |
|---|---|
| Country/Territory | United States |
| City | National Harbor |
| Period | 12/8/19 → 12/11/19 |
Funding
SAM L SAVAGE is Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to the communication and calculation of uncertainty. The organization has received funding from Chevron, Lockheed Martin, PG&E, and others, and he is joined on the board by Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics. Dr. Savage is author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty (John Wiley & Sons, 2009, 2012), and is an Adjunct Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University. He is the inventor of the Stochastic Information Packet (SIP), an auditable data array for conveying uncertainty. He received his Ph.D. in computational complexity from Yale University. He can be reached at [email protected].