A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °c target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

Arnulf Grubler; Charlie Wilson; Nuno Bento; Benigna Boza-Kiss; Volker Krey; David L. McCollum; Narasimha D. Rao; Keywan Riahi; Joeri Rogelj; Simon De Stercke; Jonathan Cullen; Stefan Frank; Oliver Fricko; Fei Guo; Matt Gidden; Petr Havlík; Daniel Huppmann; Gregor Kiesewetter; Peter Rafaj; Wolfgang Schoepp; Hugo Valin

doi:10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6

A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °c target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

Arnulf Grubler, Charlie Wilson, Nuno Bento, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Volker Krey, David L. McCollum, Narasimha D. Rao, Keywan Riahi, Joeri Rogelj, Simon De Stercke, Jonathan Cullen, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Fei Guo, Matt Gidden, Petr Havlík, Daniel Huppmann, Gregor Kiesewetter, Peter Rafaj, Wolfgang SchoeppHugo Valin

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

804 Scopus citations

Abstract

Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	515-527
Number of pages	13
Journal	Nature Energy
Volume	3
Issue number	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6
State	Published - Jun 1 2018
Externally published	Yes

Funding

The financial contribution from the Research Institute for Innovative Technologies for the Earth (RITE) to this research is gratefully acknowledged. C.W. was also supported by ERC Starting Grant no. 678799. N.D.R. was supported by ERC Starting Grant no. 637462. J.R. acknowledges the support of the Oxford Martin School Visiting Fellowship Programme. N.B. acknowledges the post-doctoral grant (ref.SFRH/BPD/91183/2012) received from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT).

Funders	Funder number
Research Institute for Innovative Technologies
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme	678799, 637462
European Research Council	ref.SFRH/BPD/91183/2012
Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6

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Grubler, A., Wilson, C., Bento, N., Boza-Kiss, B., Krey, V., McCollum, D. L., Rao, N. D., Riahi, K., Rogelj, J., De Stercke, S., Cullen, J., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Guo, F., Gidden, M., Havlík, P., Huppmann, D., Kiesewetter, G., Rafaj, P., ... Valin, H. (2018). A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °c target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies. Nature Energy, 3(6), 515-527. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6

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abstract = "Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies.",

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Grubler, A, Wilson, C, Bento, N, Boza-Kiss, B, Krey, V, McCollum, DL, Rao, ND, Riahi, K, Rogelj, J, De Stercke, S, Cullen, J, Frank, S, Fricko, O, Guo, F, Gidden, M, Havlík, P, Huppmann, D, Kiesewetter, G, Rafaj, P, Schoepp, W & Valin, H 2018, 'A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °c target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies', Nature Energy, vol. 3, no. 6, pp. 515-527. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6

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AU - Bento, Nuno

AU - Boza-Kiss, Benigna

AU - Krey, Volker

AU - McCollum, David L.

AU - Rao, Narasimha D.

AU - Riahi, Keywan

AU - Rogelj, Joeri

AU - De Stercke, Simon

AU - Cullen, Jonathan

AU - Frank, Stefan

AU - Fricko, Oliver

AU - Guo, Fei

AU - Gidden, Matt

AU - Havlík, Petr

AU - Huppmann, Daniel

AU - Kiesewetter, Gregor

AU - Rafaj, Peter

AU - Schoepp, Wolfgang

AU - Valin, Hugo

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A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °c target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

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