A dynamic simulation of the ILUC effects of biofuel use in the USA

Gbadebo Oladosu; Keith Kline

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.124

A dynamic simulation of the ILUC effects of biofuel use in the USA

Gbadebo Oladosu, Keith Kline

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

8 Scopus citations

Abstract

The global indirect land use change (ILUC) implications of biofuel use in the United States of America (USA) from 2001 to 2010 are evaluated with a dynamic general equilibrium model. The effects of biofuels production on agricultural land area vary by year; from a net expansion of 0.17. ha per 1000 gallons produced (2002) to a net contraction of -0.13. ha per 1000 gallons (2018) in Case 1 of our simulation. In accordance with the general narrative about the implications of biofuel policy, agricultural land area increased in many regions of the world. However, oil-export dependent economies experienced agricultural land contraction because of reductions in their revenues. Reducing crude oil imports is a major goal of biofuel policy, but the land use change implications have received little attention in the literature. Simulations evaluating the effects of doubling supply elasticities for land and fossil resources show that these parameters can significantly influence the land use change estimates. Therefore, research that provides empirically-based and spatially-detailed agricultural land-supply curves and capability to project future fossil energy prices is critical for improving estimates of the effects of biofuel policy on land use.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1127-1139
Number of pages	13
Journal	Energy Policy
Volume	61
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.124
State	Published - Oct 2013

Funding

This research was supported by the US Department of Energy (DoE) under the Bioenergy Technologies Office, and performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Oak Ridge National Laboratory is managed by the UT-Battelle, LLC, for DOE under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725. We thank Rocio Uria-Martinez of the Environmental Sciences Division at ORNL for her help in reviewing and providing comments on the initial version of this paper. We also appreciate the painstaking editorial help of Fred O'Hara. The views in this paper are those of the authors, who are also responsible for any errors or omissions.

Keywords

Biofuels
Income effects
Land-use

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10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.124

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title = "A dynamic simulation of the ILUC effects of biofuel use in the USA",

abstract = "The global indirect land use change (ILUC) implications of biofuel use in the United States of America (USA) from 2001 to 2010 are evaluated with a dynamic general equilibrium model. The effects of biofuels production on agricultural land area vary by year; from a net expansion of 0.17. ha per 1000 gallons produced (2002) to a net contraction of -0.13. ha per 1000 gallons (2018) in Case 1 of our simulation. In accordance with the general narrative about the implications of biofuel policy, agricultural land area increased in many regions of the world. However, oil-export dependent economies experienced agricultural land contraction because of reductions in their revenues. Reducing crude oil imports is a major goal of biofuel policy, but the land use change implications have received little attention in the literature. Simulations evaluating the effects of doubling supply elasticities for land and fossil resources show that these parameters can significantly influence the land use change estimates. Therefore, research that provides empirically-based and spatially-detailed agricultural land-supply curves and capability to project future fossil energy prices is critical for improving estimates of the effects of biofuel policy on land use.",

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AB - The global indirect land use change (ILUC) implications of biofuel use in the United States of America (USA) from 2001 to 2010 are evaluated with a dynamic general equilibrium model. The effects of biofuels production on agricultural land area vary by year; from a net expansion of 0.17. ha per 1000 gallons produced (2002) to a net contraction of -0.13. ha per 1000 gallons (2018) in Case 1 of our simulation. In accordance with the general narrative about the implications of biofuel policy, agricultural land area increased in many regions of the world. However, oil-export dependent economies experienced agricultural land contraction because of reductions in their revenues. Reducing crude oil imports is a major goal of biofuel policy, but the land use change implications have received little attention in the literature. Simulations evaluating the effects of doubling supply elasticities for land and fossil resources show that these parameters can significantly influence the land use change estimates. Therefore, research that provides empirically-based and spatially-detailed agricultural land-supply curves and capability to project future fossil energy prices is critical for improving estimates of the effects of biofuel policy on land use.

KW - Biofuels

KW - Income effects

KW - Land-use

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JO - Energy Policy

JF - Energy Policy

ER -

A dynamic simulation of the ILUC effects of biofuel use in the USA

Abstract

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Keywords

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