A CROSS-MODEL COMPARISON of GLOBAL LONG-TERM TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION under A 2°C CLIMATE CHANGE CONTROL TARGET

B. C.C. Van Der Zwaan; H. Rösler; T. Kober; T. Aboumahboub; K. V. Calvin; D. E.H.J. Gernaat; G. Marangoni; D. McCollum

doi:10.1142/S2010007813400137

A CROSS-MODEL COMPARISON of GLOBAL LONG-TERM TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION under A 2°C CLIMATE CHANGE CONTROL TARGET

B. C.C. Van Der Zwaan, H. Rösler, T. Kober, T. Aboumahboub, K. V. Calvin, D. E.H.J. Gernaat, G. Marangoni, D. McCollum

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

51 Scopus citations

Abstract

We investigate the long-term global energy technology diffusion patterns required to reach a stringent climate change target with a maximum average atmospheric temperature increase of 2°C. If the anthropogenic temperature increase is to be limited to 2°C, total CO₂ emissions have to be reduced massively, so as to reach substantial negative values during the second half of the century. Particularly power sector CO₂ emissions should become negative from around 2050 onwards according to most models used for this analysis in order to compensate for GHG emissions in other sectors where abatement is more costly. The annual additional capacity deployment intensity (expressed in GW/yr) for solar and wind energy until 2030 needs to be around that recently observed for coal-based power plants, and will have to be several times higher in the period 2030-2050. Relatively high agreement exists across models in terms of the aggregated low-carbon energy system cost requirements on the supply side until 2050, which amount to about 50 trillion US$.

Original language	English
Article number	1340013
Journal	Climate Change Economics
Volume	4
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007813400137
State	Published - Nov 1 2013
Externally published	Yes

Funding

The analysis that allowed the publication of this paper was funded by the LIMITS project (European Commission, FP7/2011-2014, grant agreement no. 282846). Kate Calvin received support from the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy as part of the Integrated Assessment Research Program. The authors would like to thank the contributions from all LIMITS project partners and modeling team members for enabling the research results reported in this article. Two anonymous referees, as well as Robert Kleiburg and Bert Metz, are acknowledged for their expert comments and valuable feedback that helped improving the quality of this paper. The analysis that allowed the publication of this paper was funded by the LIMITS project (European Commission, FP7/2011–2014, grant agreement no. 282846). Kate Calvin received support from the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy as part of the Integrated Assessment Research Program. The authors would like to thank the contributions from all LIMITS project partners and modeling team members for enabling the research results reported in this article. Two anonymous referees, as well as Robert Kleiburg and Bert Metz, are acknowledged for their expert comments and valuable feedback that helped improving the quality of this paper.

Funders	Funder number
LIMITS
U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Science
Seventh Framework Programme	282846
European Commission	FP7/2011–2014

Keywords

Climate policies
low-carbon energy growth
mitigation costs
technological innovation

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1142/S2010007813400137

Cite this

@article{c71c37bf93ca44f3af6a1b466bf16983,

title = "A CROSS-MODEL COMPARISON of GLOBAL LONG-TERM TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION under A 2°C CLIMATE CHANGE CONTROL TARGET",

abstract = "We investigate the long-term global energy technology diffusion patterns required to reach a stringent climate change target with a maximum average atmospheric temperature increase of 2°C. If the anthropogenic temperature increase is to be limited to 2°C, total CO2 emissions have to be reduced massively, so as to reach substantial negative values during the second half of the century. Particularly power sector CO2 emissions should become negative from around 2050 onwards according to most models used for this analysis in order to compensate for GHG emissions in other sectors where abatement is more costly. The annual additional capacity deployment intensity (expressed in GW/yr) for solar and wind energy until 2030 needs to be around that recently observed for coal-based power plants, and will have to be several times higher in the period 2030-2050. Relatively high agreement exists across models in terms of the aggregated low-carbon energy system cost requirements on the supply side until 2050, which amount to about 50 trillion US$.",

keywords = "Climate policies, low-carbon energy growth, mitigation costs, technological innovation",

author = "{Van Der Zwaan}, {B. C.C.} and H. R{\"o}sler and T. Kober and T. Aboumahboub and Calvin, {K. V.} and Gernaat, {D. E.H.J.} and G. Marangoni and D. McCollum",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2013 World Scientific Publishing Company.",

year = "2013",

month = nov,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1142/S2010007813400137",

language = "English",

volume = "4",

journal = "Climate Change Economics",

issn = "2010-0078",

publisher = "World Scientific Publishing",

number = "4",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - A CROSS-MODEL COMPARISON of GLOBAL LONG-TERM TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION under A 2°C CLIMATE CHANGE CONTROL TARGET

AU - Van Der Zwaan, B. C.C.

AU - Rösler, H.

AU - Kober, T.

AU - Aboumahboub, T.

AU - Calvin, K. V.

AU - Gernaat, D. E.H.J.

AU - Marangoni, G.

AU - McCollum, D.

PY - 2013/11/1

Y1 - 2013/11/1

N2 - We investigate the long-term global energy technology diffusion patterns required to reach a stringent climate change target with a maximum average atmospheric temperature increase of 2°C. If the anthropogenic temperature increase is to be limited to 2°C, total CO2 emissions have to be reduced massively, so as to reach substantial negative values during the second half of the century. Particularly power sector CO2 emissions should become negative from around 2050 onwards according to most models used for this analysis in order to compensate for GHG emissions in other sectors where abatement is more costly. The annual additional capacity deployment intensity (expressed in GW/yr) for solar and wind energy until 2030 needs to be around that recently observed for coal-based power plants, and will have to be several times higher in the period 2030-2050. Relatively high agreement exists across models in terms of the aggregated low-carbon energy system cost requirements on the supply side until 2050, which amount to about 50 trillion US$.

AB - We investigate the long-term global energy technology diffusion patterns required to reach a stringent climate change target with a maximum average atmospheric temperature increase of 2°C. If the anthropogenic temperature increase is to be limited to 2°C, total CO2 emissions have to be reduced massively, so as to reach substantial negative values during the second half of the century. Particularly power sector CO2 emissions should become negative from around 2050 onwards according to most models used for this analysis in order to compensate for GHG emissions in other sectors where abatement is more costly. The annual additional capacity deployment intensity (expressed in GW/yr) for solar and wind energy until 2030 needs to be around that recently observed for coal-based power plants, and will have to be several times higher in the period 2030-2050. Relatively high agreement exists across models in terms of the aggregated low-carbon energy system cost requirements on the supply side until 2050, which amount to about 50 trillion US$.

KW - Climate policies

KW - low-carbon energy growth

KW - mitigation costs

KW - technological innovation

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85073168810&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1142/S2010007813400137

DO - 10.1142/S2010007813400137

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85073168810

SN - 2010-0078

VL - 4

JO - Climate Change Economics

JF - Climate Change Economics

IS - 4

M1 - 1340013

ER -

A CROSS-MODEL COMPARISON of GLOBAL LONG-TERM TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION under A 2°C CLIMATE CHANGE CONTROL TARGET

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this