Predicting Ice Sheet and Climate Evolution at Extreme Scales (PISCEES)

we will spin up ice sheets to a state that closely resembles present

conditions, while remaining in near balance with CESM surface forcing. Using the DAKOTA framework,

we will develop non-intrusive and intrusive (adjoint-based) methods to quantify uncertainties associated

with physics parameters, initial conditions, boundary forcing, and model structure. We will propagate these

uncertainties in forward models to estimate confidence ranges for projections of ice-sheet evolution and

sea-level rise.

PISCEES will provide a coherent structure for ongoing collaboration among glaciologists, climate modelers,

and computational scientists. We will work closely with the SciDAC institutes (FASTMath, QUEST,

and SUPER) and the community of CISM and CESM developers. All source code and simulation results

will be freely and publicly available.